All posts tagged: Denton

How to understand the post-Gorton and Denton national poll that puts the Greens ahead of Labour

How to understand the post-Gorton and Denton national poll that puts the Greens ahead of Labour

Published by Sam Flores

Polling by YouGov suggests a surge in support for the Green party across the country following the Gorton and Denton byelection. According to the poll, Zack Polanski’s party now has a national vote share of 21%, leapfrogging the Labour party. The Greens now sit within the margin of error behind Reform’s 23%. In light of this result, some have claimed that the Green party’s byelection victory has boosted its national polling by making it look like a party that can win in an election. This is a version of what is known among political scientists as the bandwagon effect. The idea is that voters jump on the bandwagon of parties that are very popular with other voters. But it’s not necessarily the case that voters are now thinking of going Green just because the Greens won in the byelection. Coverage of byelection results has a longstanding tendency to focus too much on which party wins and not enough on trends in vote shares. Hannah Spencer won the seat for the Greens on a share of …

what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters

what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters

Published by Sam Flores

Hannah Spencer’s win in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary byelection was a momentous victory for the Green party. The party’s first-ever byelection win overturned a large Labour majority and put the general election winners into third place, behind Reform UK. The Greens are eager to position it as a sign of things to come, particularly in the May elections. Here’s what voter trends in Gorton and Denton can tell us about what’s to come. Voters continue to turn away from the two main parties Voters are looking for alternatives to the two main parties. Labour’s vote share halved in Gorton and Denton compared to the general election. With a much smaller 2024 base to start from, the Conservatives went from nearly 8% of votes to fewer than 2%, losing their deposit. This follows a trend we’re seeing at almost every election, regardless of type or location. In the 2025 local elections, fewer than 40% of incumbents from the two main parties held their seats – a figure that had previously never been below 70%. In …

Politics Home Article | How The Greens Won The Gorton And Denton By-Election

Politics Home Article | How The Greens Won The Gorton And Denton By-Election

Published by Sam Flores

Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer celebrates with party leader Zack Polanski after winning the Gorton and Denton by-election, February 2026 (AP Photo / Jon Super / Alamy Live News) 5 min read2 hr The Green Party’s historic by-election victory in Gorton and Denton sent shockwaves across British politics. Campaign insiders tell PoliticsHome how they pulled it off The Labour Party had represented the Manchester Gorton area in Parliament since the days of Ramsay MacDonald. Today, Keir Starmer’s party is reeling after its vote collapsed in the Gorton and Denton by-election, forcing the party into third place behind the Greens and Reform UK. A by-election defeat of this kind – falling into third place in a Labour-held seat – has not happened since 1982. Green candidate Hannah Spencer, who won around 40 per cent of the vote, has clearly demonstrated the threat that Zack Polanski’s “eco-populist” party poses to Labour’s left flank. Green insiders believe the party’s victory in Gorton and Denton came down to three crucial factors. Burnham’s blocking The first was the decision by Labour’s National Executive Committee …

Farage settles for second best in Gorton and Denton — as Tories lose £500 – POLITICO

Farage settles for second best in Gorton and Denton — as Tories lose £500 – POLITICO

Published by Sam Flores

In the wilderness By contrast, Britain’s Tories, who were running the country in government under two years ago, had a bruising night. They dropped from an already-dire general election showing of 7.9 percent to just 1.9 percent — receiving a paltry 706 votes. By polling under 5 percent, the party’s worst ever by-election result, the Tories lost the £500 deposit all candidates must pay to stand. In the immediate aftermath, Tory figures stressed that the party never had a chance of winning a constituency that has been reliably Labour for decades. Instead, they talked up Reform’s failure to seal the deal. “While last night’s result was disappointing for my party (we had a cracking candidate) it was not really our battlefield,” said former Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell. “The result was, however, very bad for Reform and may mark the beginning of the end of their hegemony.” Tory MP and former minister Graham Stuart said voters cast their ballots differently at by-elections compared to general elections, when they choose the next government. “The public is …

Victory in Gorton and Denton is historic for the Greens – and cataclysmic for Britain’s two-party politics

Victory in Gorton and Denton is historic for the Greens – and cataclysmic for Britain’s two-party politics

Published by Sam Flores

The Green party’s dramatic capture of Gorton and Denton, supposedly one of Labour’s safest parliamentary constituencies, offers yet more evidence of the fragmentation of British politics. The Green candidate, 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer, won 40.69% of the vote, a notable 12 points ahead of Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin (28.73%). Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia came third, with 25.44% of the vote. In terms of size of majority toppled, this was the sixth-worst byelection defeat ever for Labour. Gorton had been Labour for more than 90 years. In what is now Greater Manchester, Labour has had to defend 20 seats at byelections since the second world war, and has been successful in 16 cases. Although Labour might dismiss a byelection defeat as a mid-term blip, this is a government which has failed to enjoy a honeymoon period, led by a prime minister who has plumbed new depths in popularity ratings. It is also worth noting that turnout on Thursday was identical to that at the general election. For Keir Starmer, it was a truly awful result. But …

Politics Home | Rayner Says Labour’s Gorton And Denton Collapse Must Be “Wake Up Call” For Party

Politics Home | Rayner Says Labour’s Gorton And Denton Collapse Must Be “Wake Up Call” For Party

Published by Sam Flores

5 min read2 hr Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has said Labour must “really listen” and “reflect” after the party suffered a seismic defeat to the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Posting on X on Friday morning, Rayner said the defeat in Greater Manchester “must be a wake-up call”. Keir Starmer’s party is today reeling after suffering a collapse in a seat that it had controlled for over 100 years. Labour fell to third place in Gorton and Denton after winning the constituency with over 50 per cent of the vote at the 2024 general election. This time around, the party’s candidate Angeliki Stogia received around 25 per cent of the vote. The victor was the Green candidate Hannah Spencer, who won around 40 per cent of the vote, further demonstrating the threat to Labour’s left flank posed by Zack Polanski’s “eco-populist” party. Reform UK candidate, former academic Matt Goodwin, came second. The scale of the Labour defeat will put renewed pressure on the Prime Minister, and could be a sign of things …

Politics Home Article | Greens Sweep To Historic Victory In Gorton And Denton By-Election

Politics Home Article | Greens Sweep To Historic Victory In Gorton And Denton By-Election

Published by Sam Flores

Zack Polanski’s party achieved a seismic victory in Gorton and Denton (Alamy) 3 min read1 hr The Green Party has achieved a seismic victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, with the Labour Party pushed into third place. Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer received 14,980 votes, equivalent to 40 per cent of the vote.  Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin came second, receiving 10,578 votes (28 per cent), while Labour’s Angeliki Stogia received just 9,364 votes (25 per cent). The result is a major blow to Keir Starmer, with Labour having held the Greater Manchester seat for more than a century and returned a 13,000 majority just 18 months ago in the 2024 general election, winning 50 per cent of the vote. The Prime Minister’s leadership is likely to come under renewed pressure as a result. It could also be a sign of things to come for the government in May when elections are held in Wales, Scotland and at councils across England. For the Greens, it is a stunning outcome, with Zack Polanski’s party growing its vote share in Gorton and …

Greens storm Gorton and Denton by-election — as Labour slumps to third – POLITICO

Greens storm Gorton and Denton by-election — as Labour slumps to third – POLITICO

Published by Sam Flores

Matt Goodwin, an academic-turned-Substacker who ran for Reform UK, received 10,578 votes (28.7 percent), sharply improving Reform’s result on 2024 but not doing enough to take the insurgent Farage-led party over the line. Angeliki Stogia, standing for Labour, bagged just 9,364 votes (25.4 percent). The result represents a serious blow from the left for Starmer, who is battling tumbling poll ratings and major concerns over his leadership from his own MPs. The Green vote climbed 27.4 percentage points on 2024’s result, while Reform UK’s climbed by 14.6 percentage points. By contrast, Labour’s share of the vote tumbled 25.4 percentage points on 2024’s general election result. The turnout was 47.62 percent, slightly down from 47.8 percent at the general election. “Working hard used to get you something,” Spencer said in a victory speech that majored on cost-of-living concerns and attacks on billionaires. “It got you a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere. But now working hard, what does that get you?” ‘Deeply disappointing’ It marks the second by-election defeat for Labour since Starmer …

Gorton and Denton was a disaster for Labour – can Starmer find a way back? | Politics News

Gorton and Denton was a disaster for Labour – can Starmer find a way back? | Politics News

Published by Sam Flores

The first ever Green by-election win, their first ever MP in the north of England, all in the first electoral test for the relatively new Green leader Zack Polanski. This is his moment – and reasonably so.  Not wanting to punch a bruise, but ironically there’s something of the Andy Burnham about the new Green MP Hannah Spencer – her lilt, her approach, the way she talks about her plumbing job, her roots in the community – all a style Labour would be jealous of. And Labour could have had it too, had Burnham not been blocked by Keir Starmer. By-election latest – follow live She will enter Parliament a perpetual reminder of a choice Labour could have had but Keir Starmer blocked. Make no mistake about it, this is a disaster for Labour. The party held the Gorton and Denton seat at the last general election by over 50%, and it was Labour’s 38th safest seat. Less than a week ago, one of Labour’s campaign team was swearing they would win, a message being …

Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

Published by Sam Flores

The fight is on for the Gorton and Denton byelection on February 26. It is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus, a site which runs regular MRP (multi-level regression post stratification) surveys, Reform will win with 32% of the vote, the Greens will come second on 23.3% and Labour third with 22.6%. There is however a problem with MRP polls. They produce results that are far more variable than can be accounted for by standard sources of errors in surveys. For example, a different MRP conducted by Electoral Calculus in December last year gave Reform 335 seats, the Greens 52 and Labour 41 in a hypothetical general election. In contrast, an MRP conducted by More in Common at about the same time gave Reform 381 seats, the Greens nine and Labour 85. Both results are therefore highly questionable. An alternative approach to forecasting involves conducting small sample surveys in constituencies holding byelections. The trouble is that these are not very accurate – as the recent Caerphilly byelection for …