All posts tagged: GDP

GDP Shocker: 75% Of US Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI

GDP Shocker: 75% Of US Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI

Published by Jenni Sidey

On the surface, today’s Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.0% annualized in the first quarter, somewhat below consensus expectations of 2.3% and reflecting a surprisingly small rebound in government spending after the shutdown drag in Q4. Federal government spending contributed only half as much to real GDP growth in Q1 (+0.6%) as it subtracted in Q4 (-1.2%), implying that the level of real federal government spending in Q1 is 2.2% below its level in 2025Q3. Inventory accumulation also contributed less to Q1 growth than we had anticipated (+0.4pp vs. our expectation of +1.2pp). Net exports subtracted 1.3% from GDP after boosting it dramatically in early 2025 as imports surpassed exports. Consumer spending rose 1.6%, somewhat above consensus expectations, but as we noted earlier, much of this has been due to “stimulus” refunds which are now over, and which pushed spending growth far higher than income growth. Even with the stimmies, personal savings dropped to a 3 year low. Yet when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Housing investment declined 8%, …

As Los Angeles Hits “Breaking Point” Population Exodus, Houston’s GDP Rockets Higher

As Los Angeles Hits “Breaking Point” Population Exodus, Houston’s GDP Rockets Higher

Published by Jenni Sidey

California – which spends nearly 40% of taxpayer revenue ($95.5 billion, not including federal funds) on social services that’s rife with  fraud – and which spends roughly 25% of its $95.5 billion Medi-Cal budget (free healthcare) on illegal immigrants, is in the midst of a massive population exodus due to housing affordability, crime, taxes, wildfires, parental rights, and homelessness.  And while San Francisco and Los Angeles compete for the biggest cesspool in the country, LA county just took the crown when it comes to population loss. According to the latest US Census data, Los Angeles county lost over 53,000 residents – marking the largest decline in any US city between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 – while the overall population loss from 2020 to today is roughly 300,000 people. “There is a real sense of burnout. They are paying insane taxes and getting absolutely nothing in return,” according to real estate developer Robert Rivani in a comment to Fox Business. “People feel like they’re living in a place that’s draining them financially and in exchange they’re dealing with rising crime, shrinking services, …

Bleak economic data shows UK plc in trouble well before Middle East crisis | Economic growth (GDP)

Bleak economic data shows UK plc in trouble well before Middle East crisis | Economic growth (GDP)

Published by Sam Flores

Even before Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury on Iran unleashed higher oil prices, threatening the outlook for growth and inflation, the UK economy was flatlining. That’s the bleak message in the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which showed zero GDP growth in January. On the less volatile three-monthly measure, growth was 0.2% – a slight improvement on 0.1% in the three months to December. But the data will not help Rachel Reeves’s argument that her policies have put the economy in a stronger position to withstand whatever is headed the UK’s way. The sectoral breakdown gives little cause for optimism either. The important services sector grew by 0.2% in the three months to January, helped by strong expansion in wholesale and retail; but within that, in a sign of the rapidly weakening labour market, “employment activities”, such as recruitment consultancy were down by 5.7%. The healthier-looking 1.2% growth in production – which included manufacturing – was flattered by the recovery of Jaguar Land Rover from its shutdown after a cyber-attack. And …

UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, official figures show | Economic growth (GDP)

UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, official figures show | Economic growth (GDP)

Published by Sam Flores

The UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, stoking concerns over growth amid the global energy price shock triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed 0% growth in gross domestic product (GDP), down from an increase of 0.1% in December, as the economy failed to recover from uncertainty surrounding the chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget. Falling significantly short of City predictions for growth of 0.2%, the figures came as the UK and other countries faced a potentially severe economic hit as the Middle East conflict drove up oil and gas prices, hitting consumers with higher living costs. The pound fell against the US dollar after the figures were released and government borrowing costs rose. In a fresh blow to the government’s growth ambitions after a challenging start to the year, output in the service sector flatlined amid falls in recruitmentactivity and the hospitality sector. Unemployment in the UK has risen to the highest level in five years in recent months, with businesses complaining that employer tax increases …

Trump previewed weak GDP on Truth Social ahead of official release

Trump previewed weak GDP on Truth Social ahead of official release

Published by Sam Flores

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Coosa Steel Corporation on Feb. 19, 2026 in Rome, Georgia. Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images Forty minutes before the federal government revealed that economic growth slowed sharply in the last quarter, President Donald Trump dropped a hint that the incoming data would be weaker. “The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post at 7:50 a.m. ET. At 8:30 a.m., the Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s a decline of 3 percentage points from the previous three-month period. Trump’s Friday morning post referred to last year’s record-length government shutdown, which began Oct. 1 — the start of the fourth quarter — and lasted 43 days. The federal funding lapse was expected to take a toll on GDP. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that, depending on its length, the shutdown would …

Trump Nodded to Low GDP Numbers in Social Post Ahead of Public Release, Blaming Shutdown

Trump Nodded to Low GDP Numbers in Social Post Ahead of Public Release, Blaming Shutdown

Published by Sam Flores

WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump seemingly flagged a disappointing end-of-year reading ⁠on ⁠U.S. economic growth before it was made public, ⁠criticizing the role Democrats played in an extended government shutdown last fall that pulled down the economy’s headline ​output numbers. “The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST ‌RATES. “Two Late” Powell is the WORST!!! President DJT,” ‌Trump said on social media more than half an hour before the release of new government data that showed the economy grew at just a 1.4% ⁠annual rate over ⁠the final three months of the year, with the 43-day federal shutdown from October 1, 2025, ​to November 12, 2025 lowering that by an estimated 1.15 percentage points. The president receives some economic data in advance, but elected officials have by tradition withheld comment until those reports are made public, often at 8:30 a.m. His call for lower interest rates has become a common refrain, with the …

Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Grows At 1.4%, Half Expected Pace, As Government Shutdown Slams Growth

Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Grows At 1.4%, Half Expected Pace, As Government Shutdown Slams Growth

Published by Jenni Sidey

There was a big surprise at 8:30am ET when the BEA reported the (delayed) GDP print for the last quarter of 2025: With consensus expecting a 2.8% print  (and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model even higher) which would already be a big drop from the 4.4% in Q3, the BEA instead reported that the US economy grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the slowest growth since the tariff shock of Q1 2025. According to the BEA, the contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.  Overall, the economy expanded 2.2% last year, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed. Specifically, the Q4 breakdown was as follows: Personal consumption slowed notably, from 2.34% of the bottom line GDP to just 1.58% or more than 100% of the final 1.42% GDP print Fixed Investment contributed to 0.45% of bottom line GDP, up from …