All posts tagged: Markets

Prediction markets face a geolocation reckoning as regulators tighten scrutiny worldwide

Prediction markets face a geolocation reckoning as regulators tighten scrutiny worldwide

Published by skeptic

“The first thing to understand is that geolocation controls are risk management controls, not absolute security controls.” Trevor Horwitz, founder and CISO of TrustNet, neatly sums up the challenge currently facing prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Regulators around the world have been stepping up scrutiny of event-based trading platforms, as prediction market operators have been put under the spotlight to see whether they’re doing enough to stop people from circumventing geographic restrictions. Supporters argue they’re valuable tools that let people put their money behind predictions about everything from elections and economic data to sporting events and global affairs. Critics see things differently, saying the concept is essentially gambling packaged up in a more sophisticated form. Until recently, that debate was mostly academic. Now, regulators and courts around the world are being forced to weigh in. “The reality is that it is not realistic for any globally accessible online platform to guarantee that users from prohibited jurisdictions will never gain access.” – Trevor Horwitz, TrustNet CISO and founder Recent actions in Spain and …

Markets underpricing potential Burnham win over Starmer, analysts say

Markets underpricing potential Burnham win over Starmer, analysts say

Published by Sam Flores

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to overthrow U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, abruptly cancelled a call aimed at placating investors nervous about his potential policy mix on Monday, the FT reported. Burnham — who is not yet a sitting member of the U.K. parliament — will run in the June 18 by-election in Makerfield, north-west England. If he wins the seat, he is widely expected to launch a formal challenge to usurp Starmer’s position. Starmer’s premiership has been under intense pressure following a crushing defeat for the ruling Labour Party in the U.K.’s local elections. Political instability and Burnham’s bid to return to Westminster has sent jitters through the U.K.’s government bond market in recent weeks, amid expectations that he would be a tack to the left from Starmer and ramp up borrowing. The U.K. has the highest borrowing costs in the G7, with yields on its long-term gilts trading well above the critical 5% threshold. d’ title=”Interactive or visual content” class=”flourish-embed-iframe” frameborder=”0″ scrolling=’no’ style=”width:100%;height:600px;” …

Commodity Markets Are Living On Borrowed Time

Commodity Markets Are Living On Borrowed Time

Published by Jenni Sidey

Authored by Helen Thomas via City AM, Governments and industry have softened the impact of energy and commodity supply disruptions by releasing reserves, reducing inventories, and increasing operational flexibility. These measures are temporary, and continued inventory drawdowns are pushing oil and metal markets toward historically tight conditions. Once inventories become critically low, higher prices may become the primary mechanism for balancing supply and demand, leading to weaker economic growth and lower consumption. Commodity markets have spent the past three months performing an extraordinary balancing act. Despite one of the most significant disruptions to global energy flows in decades, the global economy has continued to function remarkably smoothly. After an initial spike, prices for several key commodities have stabilised or even eased. Yet this apparent calm is deceptive. The reason the system has held together is due to governments, producers and consumers drawing down the buffers that normally protect the global economy from disruption. Those buffers are now approaching dangerous limits. Inventories are being depleted at a remarkable pace. Global oil stockpiles have fallen to levels that …

Illinois budget bill targets sports prediction markets with unique transaction tax

Illinois budget bill targets sports prediction markets with unique transaction tax

Published by skeptic

Illinois lawmakers have signed off on a budget measure that would create what appears to be the first state tax aimed specifically at sports event contracts traded through prediction markets. The provision was included in the wider revenue package contained in Senate Bill 3019, which cleared both chambers on June 1. Under the legislation, “any wagers offered under this Act shall be subject to incur a transaction tax equal to 1.75% of each exchange wager.” The bill also establishes a higher rate for operators with significant activity. After a licensee reaches five million exchange wagers during a fiscal year, the transaction tax imposed under this subsection shall increase to 3.5% of each exchange wager. Rather than taxing operator revenue, the proposal is built around transaction volume. Revenue generated by the tax would flow into the Sports Wagering Fund before ultimately being transferred to the state’s General Revenue Fund. The legislation states that the tax “shall be deposited monthly into the Sports Wagering Fund” and outlines the transfer process for certified amounts. Analysis circulated by Fairplaygov …

U.S. jury finds investor Andrew Left guilty of securities fraud

U.S. jury finds investor Andrew Left guilty of securities fraud

Published by Sam Flores

Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, arrives at federal court in Los Angeles, California, US, on Monday, July 7, 2025. Activist short seller Andrew Left is set to appear in federal court Monday in a securities fraud case that shook the industry a year ago, setting up a battle over investor tips and free speech. Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images A U.S. jury found prominent investor Andrew Left guilty of securities fraud on Monday, the Justice Department said, in a blow to a divisive cohort of short sellers who have for years ‌goaded public companies in the U.S. and overseas with allegations of fraud and mismanagement. U.S. authorities charged Left in July 2024, alleging he had manipulated the stock market and defrauded investors with misleading claims about his positions in multiple companies’ shares, including Nvidia and Tesla, making at least $20 million in the process. Left, who runs Citron Research, denied the allegations and had pleaded not guilty. After two days of deliberations, however, the jury found him guilty of engaging in a …

Potential Offshore Strike In Norway Could Add Fresh Uncertainty To Global Energy Markets As Wage Talks Collapse

Potential Offshore Strike In Norway Could Add Fresh Uncertainty To Global Energy Markets As Wage Talks Collapse

Published by Jenni Sidey

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com A potential strike over wages could threaten smooth operations offshore Norway, Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, at a time when the world is scrambling for oil and gas supply amid the Middle East crisis. Almost 8% of oil and gas workers offshore Norway could go on a strike from June 5 if trade union negotiations with industry fail to reach an agreement in a government-brokered mediation process, according to data from the labor unions on Monday. More than 600 workers out of about 8,100 in total offshore Norway could begin a strike later this week, Reuters reported on Monday, citing the office of the government-appointed mediator. Negotiations between the offshore industry and the workers organized in the Styrke, Lederne, and Safe trade unions continue. At the end of last week, talks between Offshore Norway, which represents the oil industry in the wage talks, and the unions broke down. Offshore Norway and the trade union Styrke held negotiations on May 27 on the onshore base agreements, which cover approximately …

Europe’s race to secure its energy supplies — live updates – POLITICO

Europe’s race to secure its energy supplies — live updates – POLITICO

Published by Sam Flores

The fallout from the U.S.-Israel war in Iran is already rippling through global markets. But the worst may still lie ahead for Europe. As oil and gas supplies tighten and prices spike, the shock is seeping into every corner of the economy, from manufacturing to borrowing costs to demand shifts. Against this gloomy backdrop, how can policymakers contain the damage to avoid a deeper economic impact? And beyond the short term, what will this energy shock mean for Europe’s households and its industrial competitiveness? The crisis is also accelerating another shift: Europe’s clean transition. It’s no longer seen predominately as a climate imperative, but a question of economic security. Which policy moves will help safeguard the bloc’s sovereignty while reducing its emissions? Follow all the discussions and news from POLITICO’s Energy & Climate Forum as we unpack these hot-button issues with the policymakers, industry leaders and policy experts shaping Europe’s response. See the full program here and follow along here from 9 a.m. Source link

How network planning could provide a £2.58 billion boost – POLITICO

How network planning could provide a £2.58 billion boost – POLITICO

Published by Sam Flores

Though much of this early progress has been made possible without breaking new ground or installing significant new hardware, the next phase of the plan will challenge us more. This is predominantly due to the planning permission we require to get started. Despite 96% of our planned sites involve upgrading existing infrastructure rather than building new masts, more than half will require planning permission under current rules. The cost of planning processes can be significant. They can place added pressure on local council resources, slow businesses’ access to new technology and may delay improved connectivity for rural communities. Analysis by WPI Economics estimates that network planning delays could represent a £2.58bn missed opportunity for the UK economy by 2035. The only way to help deliver better connectivity is to work together to modernise a planning system for the era of 5G connectivity. After all, 5G is a very different technology to 4G and, despite physical hardware moving on vastly since the last generation making it more energy efficient, compact and less visually obtrusive, we are …

EU’s big 6 pitch a rival to Wall Street – POLITICO

EU’s big 6 pitch a rival to Wall Street – POLITICO

Published by Sam Flores

Back-to-back crises have limited the power of the public purse, so policymakers are hoping professional financiers and savers can do the heavy lifting by putting their money to work in the right places. EU citizens alone have €11 trillion of cash savings sitting in their bank accounts. But vying interests from within the industry and national governments, such as Ireland and Luxembourg, threaten to derail negotiations. That’s convinced the E6 group to agree on the fundamentals among themselves to speed the process along, triggering fears of a two-speed Europe in which some countries are left behind. “I don’t think a separate structure is feasible, because it would conflict with the prevailing perception in all member states today that fragmentation must stop,” Cyprus’ Finance Minister Makis Keravnos, who currently chairs Ecofin meetings, told POLITICO. Devil in the detail The broad strokes of the deal paper over internal divisions within the E6. While all six governments agree on upgrading the EU’s securities regulator into a supercop for the bloc, they disagree on how fast the process should …