All posts tagged: the wired world in 2026

Discovering the Dimensions of a New Cold War

Discovering the Dimensions of a New Cold War

Published by skeptic

In 2025, American and world leaders were preoccupied with wars in the Middle East. Most dramatically, first Israel and the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Some commentators feared that President Trump’s decision to bomb Iran would drag the United States into the “forever wars” in the Middle East that presidential candidate Trump had pledged to avoid. The tragic war in Gaza had become a humanitarian disaster. After years of promising to reduce engagement with the region from Democratic and Republican presidents alike, it appeared that the US was being dragged back into Middle East once again. I hope that’s not the case. Instead, in 2026, President Trump, his administration, the US Congress, and the American people more generally must realize that the real challenges to the American national interests, the free world, and global order more generally come not from the Middle East but from the autocratic China and Russia. The three-decade honeymoon from great power politics after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War is over. For …

The Earth Is Nearing an Environmental Tipping Point

The Earth Is Nearing an Environmental Tipping Point

Published by skeptic

In 2024 we emitted more greenhouse gases into our atmosphere in a single year than any year before it. The increase from 2023 was small—0.8 percent—but still, global emissions continue to rise, despite science telling us we should have bent the global emissions’ curve downward by 2020. The emissions in our atmosphere are at work, heating the planet, acidifying our oceans, and leading to climate-fueled disasters: heat waves, fires, flooding, droughts, and storms. For some climate impacts, devastation can be followed by the painstaking work of recovery. But for many natural systems, like our tropical coral reefs, the stress we are putting on them is reaching the realms of permanent decline and ultimate collapse. As we near 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming—the globally agreed upon limit of the Paris Agreement—we risk triggering tipping points. They are slumbering giants that in their healthy state dampen stress and cool the planet; systems with thresholds that, once crossed, lead to irreversible shifts, from dampening to amplifying stress, causing loss of resilience of the planet and accelerating the …

The Dollar Is Facing an End to Its Dominance

The Dollar Is Facing an End to Its Dominance

Published by skeptic

2026 will be the year when US dollar dilution—the quiet erosion of its global dominance as countries trade and pay in alternatives—starts to build momentum. The more Washington uses the dollar as a weapon, the more the world builds ways to circumvent it. America’s share of global trade has fallen from one-third in 2000 to just one-quarter today. As emerging economies trade more with each other, the dollar is less central to the flow of goods. Indian and Russian trade now settles in rupees, dirhams, and yuan. More than half of China’s trade now moves through CIPS, China’s own cross-border payment system, instead of SWIFT—the global messaging network long dominated by Western banks. Other trading partnerships like Brazil-Argentina, UAE-India, and Indonesia-Malaysia are also piloting local currency settlements. At the same time, central banks around the world are starting to accumulate currencies other than the dollar as reserves. The dollar made up 72 percent of global reserves in 1999. Today, it’s down to 58 percent—and falling. A currency is safe only if it’s perceived to be …

The US Must Stop Underestimating Drone Warfare

The US Must Stop Underestimating Drone Warfare

Published by skeptic

In 2026, we won’t see terrorism incidents similar to 9/11, when hijacked airplanes struck the World Trade Center, or the Oklahoma City bombing, when ammonium nitrate–packed trucks leveled federal buildings. Instead, the next act of terror will begin with the buzzing sound of the drone rotors spinning at 5,000 rpm, audible only seconds before the swarm will reach its target. In recent years, drones have become an integral part of modern warfare. On the battlefield, we’ve undeniably entered the age of precise mass in conflict, where low-cost attributable drones, powered by widely available commercial technology, open software, and AI, are now the most effective weapons. They can be hidden in plain sight and then launched to destroy targets thousands of miles away from active battlefields. In June 2025, for instance, they were used by Ukraine to destroy 10 percent of Russia’s bombers on the tarmac as part of Operation Spider Web. That same month, Israel also launched clandestine drone attacks from within Iran to destroy military and nuclear sites. In April, Houthi rebels used drones …

US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack

US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack

Published by skeptic

In 2026, the leaders of America’s (former) trading partners are going to have to grapple with the political consequences of tit-for-tat tariffs. A tariff is a tax paid by consumers, and if there’s one thing the past four years have taught us, it’s that the public will not forgive a politician who presides over a period of rising prices, no matter what the cause. Luckily for the political fortunes of the world’s leaders, there is a better way to respond to tariffs. Tit-for-tat tariffs are a 19th-century tactic, and we live in a 21st-century world—a world where the most profitable lines of business of the most profitable US companies are all vulnerable to a simple legal change that will make things cheaper for billions of people, all over the world, including in the US, at the expense of the companies whose CEOs posed with Trump on the inaugural dais. In 2026, countries that want to win the trade war have a unique historical possibility: They could repeal their “anticircumvention” laws, which make it illegal—a felony, …