GEOGRAPHY FAVOURS IRAN

The problem is that forcing open the Strait of Hormuz would be an asset-intensive and operationally demanding mission. The challenge of operating in this chokepoint is geography.

Iran’s position along the northern edge of the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman allows it to use relatively cheap cruise missiles, uncrewed aerial vehicles and small boats to threaten shipping with very limited warning time.

US warships supported by airpower can defend themselves and limited groups of escorted vessels against these attacks. But doing so over prolonged periods is demanding on crews and rapidly consumes missiles that cannot be replenished at sea. 

While there is no fixed ratio, it is unlikely a single US destroyer could effectively protect more than two or three merchant ships transiting the Strait at one time, particularly given that the merchant vessels themselves have no ability to defend against these threats.

Any sustained escort operation would also require extensive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, as well as coverage of Iran’s coastal areas to provide early warning of attacks. Combat air patrols would need to remain overhead, supported by helicopters ready to respond to drone or small boat attacks on shipping. 

Maintaining this effort over time would likely also require limited marine corps raids against Iranian Revolutionary Guard launch sites along the coast or on Iranian-held islands.