All posts tagged: War on Iran

US House votes to curb Trump on Iran war as talks stall

US House votes to curb Trump on Iran war as talks stall

ISRAEL, LEBANON AGREE CEASEFIRE In Washington, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire after two days of direct talks. Notably, the agreement requires a “complete cessation” of fire by Hezbollah. They further agreed “with the guidance of the United States” to create “pilot zones” in which Lebanese armed forces – which have struggled to contain Hezbollah – “will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors”, a joint statement said. Further talks were planned in the week of Jun 22, with a view toward reaching a “comprehensive agreement”. Israel and Hezbollah, however, have continued to trade fire, with Hezbollah claiming missile attacks on northern Israel on Wednesday and Lebanon saying Israeli strikes in the south killed at least nine people, including two paramedics. Israeli troops are staging their deepest ground offensive into Lebanon in two decades. A truce to halt the fighting in Lebanon was meant to take hold on Apr 17 but has never been observed. “PLAYING WITH FIRE” Kuwait’s military condemned the drone strike on its airport as …

US says struck Iranian radar and drone control sites; Iran Guards say US base targeted

US says struck Iranian radar and drone control sites; Iran Guards say US base targeted

ATTACKS RATTLE CEASEFIRE TALKS The duelling attacks reflect the fragility of a weeks-long ceasefire, which has seen repeated attacks even as American and Iranian officials try to negotiate a deal to extend it.  Iran has maintained its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in the meantime, disrupting global energy supplies as a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed through the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf. Over the weekend, the US fired a missile into the engine room of a Gambia-flagged cargo ship trying to break its blockade of Iranian ports . A trickle of ships have made it out of the strait, but pressure continues on global energy supplies, as well as chemical fertiliser which has led to fears of food shortages. The Gulf region produces 30 per cent of globally traded chemical fertilisers. US President Donald Trump met with advisers on Friday but has yet to decide on whether to move ahead with a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the strait, while Iran has said the deal …

India, US discuss Middle East, trade as Rubio cites progress on Iran conflict

India, US discuss Middle East, trade as Rubio cites progress on Iran conflict

NEW DELHI: United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Sunday (May 24), as the two sides discussed the Middle East, trade, visas, maritime security and energy supplies, while Washington cited progress on efforts to resolve the Iran conflict. Rubio said progress had been made in the past 48 hours on an outline that could help resolve the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and added there was a possibility of “good news” in the next few hours. He reiterated that Iran could never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and said attacks on commercial vessels were “totally illegal”. The discussions come amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping lanes and energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes. Jaishankar said India and the US had common interests and shared challenges, and that India supported safe maritime passage. He said the two sides also discussed efforts to conclude a bilateral trade deal at …

Commentary: From Iran to Ukraine, lasting ceasefires remain elusive

Commentary: From Iran to Ukraine, lasting ceasefires remain elusive

THE PUBLIC STATEMENTS Full texts of the ceasefires in Ukraine and Iran have not been published. But public statements from people involved suggest that neither agreement included strong compliance or demobilisation mechanisms, and did not involve extensive consideration of longer-term security guarantees. When announcing the initial Apr 7 ceasefire, for example, Trump said the US had agreed to a limited two-week suspension of force in exchange for the Iranian reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But he made no reference to how compliance would be monitored or enforced by a third party, or what military actions would be mutually considered a violation. Many analysts have noted Trump’s preference for reaching quick, transactional “deals” over sustainable agreements. Others have argued that his eagerness to announce conflicts as being solved is reducing ceasefires from being a tangible step on the exit route out of conflict to “performative diplomacy”. It is also hard to see how the international system can enforce compliance with ceasefires in the Iran and Ukraine wars. The US and Russia’s membership of the United …

US probe into strike on Iran girls’ school near conclusion, US admiral says

US probe into strike on Iran girls’ school near conclusion, US admiral says

WASHINGTON: A United States military investigation into a strike at a girls’ school in Iran has been “complex” given that it was located on an active Iranian cruise missile base but the probe is approaching its conclusion, a US military commander said on Tuesday (May 19). Reuters first reported that an initial, internal US military investigation showed US forces were likely responsible for the fatal strike in Minab. The Pentagon has since elevated the probe but it has not acknowledged any preliminary findings.  The incident took place on Feb 28 on the first day of the conflict and killed more than 175 children and teachers, Iranian officials say. “I’m always reluctant to put a timetable on it. (The investigation) is coming to the end and I think transparency is important,” US Admiral Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, testified on Tuesday before a committee in the US House of Representatives. Democratic lawmakers pressed Cooper to publicly acknowledge the likely US responsibility. “It’s really pretty clear what happened there. But 80 days on, we have not …

China trade beats forecasts in April despite Middle East war

China trade beats forecasts in April despite Middle East war

The talks previously set for late March were delayed by the war in the Middle East, which has sent global energy prices soaring as shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt. The world’s second-largest economy produced a record-breaking trade surplus last year at US$1.2 trillion. For Trump, imbalance in the countries’ trade relationship has long been a major sticking point. SUPERPOWER SUMMIT Ahead of the key meeting, China’s exports to the United States grew 11.3 per cent year-on-year in April, GAC data showed Saturday, returning to growth after dropping sharply by 26.5 per cent in March. Shipments to the United States had also dropped 11 per cent in January and February combined. Trade is set to be a prominent topic in the upcoming meeting between Xi and Trump, with both leaders eyeing key concessions for their massive economies. Beijing has set an official target growth range for this year of 4.5 to 5 per cent – the lowest in decades. Early indications suggest the country’s economy is on pace, …

Commentary: Even the world’s most powerful navy cannot simply restore safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz

Commentary: Even the world’s most powerful navy cannot simply restore safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz

GEOGRAPHY FAVOURS IRAN The problem is that forcing open the Strait of Hormuz would be an asset-intensive and operationally demanding mission. The challenge of operating in this chokepoint is geography. Iran’s position along the northern edge of the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman allows it to use relatively cheap cruise missiles, uncrewed aerial vehicles and small boats to threaten shipping with very limited warning time. US warships supported by airpower can defend themselves and limited groups of escorted vessels against these attacks. But doing so over prolonged periods is demanding on crews and rapidly consumes missiles that cannot be replenished at sea.  While there is no fixed ratio, it is unlikely a single US destroyer could effectively protect more than two or three merchant ships transiting the Strait at one time, particularly given that the merchant vessels themselves have no ability to defend against these threats. Any sustained escort operation would also require extensive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, as …

Oil eases on signs US is loosening Iranian closure of Strait of Hormuz

Oil eases on signs US is loosening Iranian closure of Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices eased on Tuesday (May 5), after climbing by as much as 6 per cent in the previous session, on signs that the US Navy is loosening Iran’s closure of the key Strait of Hormuz waterway, potentially opening up supply from the key Middle East producing area. The US on Monday launched a new operation aimed at reopening Hormuz to shipping and Maersk said later that its Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier, exited the Gulf via the strait accompanied by US military assets, easing some immediate supply disruption fears. Brent oil futures for July fell US$0.68, or 0.6 per cent, to US$113.76 per barrel at 1am GMT (9am, Singapore time), after settling up 5.8 per cent on Monday.  US West Texas Intermediate crude fell US$1.59, or 1.5 per cent, to US$104.83, after gaining 4.4 per cent in the previous session. “The successful escorted exit of the Maersk-operated vessel has helped ease some immediate supply disruption fears,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “It shows that limited safe passage is possible …

Iran military official says renewed war with US ‘likely’

Iran military official says renewed war with US ‘likely’

“TERMINATED” In Washington, lawmakers were wrestling with a legal dispute over whether Trump had breached a deadline to seek congressional approval for the war. Administration officials argue that the ceasefire pauses a 60-day limit, after which congressional authorisation would be required – a claim disputed by opposition Democrats. Trump faces growing domestic pressure, with inflation rising, no clear victory in sight and midterm elections approaching. “There has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since Apr 7, 2026,” Trump said in letters to congressional leaders, adding that the hostilities “have terminated”. In Iran, the war’s economic toll is deepening. Washington has imposed new sanctions on three Iranian currency firms and warned others against paying a “toll” for safe passage through Hormuz, as demanded by Iran. The US military says its blockade of Iranian ports has stopped US$6 billion in Iranian oil exports, while inflation in Iran, already high before the war, has surged past 50 per cent. “Everyone is trying to endure it, but … they are falling apart,” 40-year-old Amir, …

Trump, unhappy with latest peace proposal, says Iran ‘figuring out its leadership’

Trump, unhappy with latest peace proposal, says Iran ‘figuring out its leadership’

Since several senior Iranian political and military figures were killed in US-Israeli strikes, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power, which may be hardening Tehran’s negotiating stance. The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, and the elevation of his wounded son, Mojtaba, to replace him as supreme leader, has handed more power to hardline commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian officials and analysts say. Senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the proposal carried by Araqchi to Islamabad over the weekend envisioned talks in stages. A first step would require ending the war and providing guarantees the US cannot restart it. Then negotiators would resolve the US Navy’s blockade of Iran‘s trade by sea and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran aims to reopen under its control. Only then would talks look at other issues, including the longstanding dispute over Iran‘s nuclear programme, with Iran seeking US acknowledgement of its right to enrich uranium. …