Cuba risks losing its primary ally as the United States tightens its grip on Venezuela. The alliance between Havana and Caracas, forged at the start of the century by former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez (1999-2003) and his Cuban counterpart Fidel Castro (1976-2008), was military, political and economic. Although Cuba has always denied having security forces in Venezuela, at least 32 Cuban soldiers died under unclear circumstances during the abduction of the presidential couple, Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores, on January 3.

“Except for a very small minority, no one in Cuba is rejoicing at the tragic events in Venezuela. There is a very strong attachment to sovereignty in Cuban society. The fear of losing an ally like Venezuela can only fuel anxiety among a population facing an unprecedented social crisis,” said Janette Habel, a researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies on Latin America specializing in Cuban affairs.

The island’s economy took a nosedive starting in 2016, along with that of Venezuela, with which it conducted 47% of its trade at the time – mainly oil – compared to 10% in 2025. The Covid-19 crisis and sanctions imposed by the first Trump administration (2017-2021), continued by Joe Biden (2021-2025), further restricted Cuba’s commercial and financial exchanges with the rest of the world. In 2025, the island experienced repeated massive power outages due to fuel shortages and out-of-service infrastructure.

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