Byrne’s hard work onscreen and off did wind up earning her an Oscar nomination, a handful of honors from critics groups in New York and Los Angeles, as well as the Golden Globe for best actress in a musical or comedy. Buckley, meanwhile, has practically swept all of the major precursor awards, including the Golden Globe (for best actress in a drama), the Critics Choice Award, the Actor Award, and, most recently, the BAFTA. She’s been running the table in a film that the Academy recognized with eight total nominations, including best picture. Byrne, meanwhile, is the only nominee from If I Had Legs. Conventional wisdom dictates that Buckley is the unimpeachable front-runner here. But best actress also has a history of pulling spoilers. The other acting categories often reward performers who felt like foregone conclusions: See Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in best actor, Laura Dern (Marriage Story) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in supporting actress, and Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). …