All posts tagged: El Niño

Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad

Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad

Published by skeptic

Atlantic hurricane season is almost upon us and the early signs indicate it might be less active than usual. But that’s no reason to delete your weather app and ignore the forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and one to three will be Category 3 or higher. “What’s driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. Characterized by a tongue of hot water stretching across the Pacific, El Niño is likely to emerge this summer. That stretch of warm ocean rearranges weather patterns around the world. In the case of the tropical Atlantic, El Niño stirs up winds that make it hard for hurricanes to spin up. Those that do can sometimes be torn apart by what’s going on in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is predicting a very active season in that ocean basin.) During the three past super El Niños, accumulated cyclone energy—a …

India faces risk of weaker monsoon, raising inflation and growth concerns

India faces risk of weaker monsoon, raising inflation and growth concerns

Published by Sam Flores

MUMBAI: India could be heading into a weaker-than-usual monsoon season this year, raising concerns about inflation and the broader economy. The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-average rainfall for the June to September monsoon period – the first such outlook in three years. Rainfall is expected to be about 92 per cent of the long-term average, making it the lowest initial monsoon forecast in more than two decades. EL NINO A KEY FACTOR One of the main drivers behind the weaker outlook is El Nino, a climate pattern linked to the warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that typically weakens India’s southwest monsoon. The monsoon season is a crucial part of India’s climate system, delivering nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall.  This water is vital for agriculture, reservoirs and groundwater replenishment. About half of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. Source link

Warming El Nino set to return in mid-2026

Warming El Nino set to return in mid-2026

Published by Sam Flores

GENEVA: The warming El Nino weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected back in the middle of this year, the UN said on Friday (Apr 24). The United Nations’ weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions were likely as early as the May to July three-month window. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) meanwhile, said early signs indicated a strong event. El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between. The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high. “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year … there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s climate prediction chief. “Models indicate that this may be a strong …

UK weather: Temperatures to rise again as Met Office says ‘super El Niño’ is brewing

UK weather: Temperatures to rise again as Met Office says ‘super El Niño’ is brewing

Published by Sam Flores

Temperatures are set to rise again this week after Britons basked in one of the warmest recorded starts to April. Last Wednesday, 26.6C was recorded at Kew Gardens in southwest London, making it the hottest day of 2026 so far. Following a cooler weekend, temperatures are expected to rise slowly and could reach 18C by Friday in London, and 16C in Manchester. Springtime temperatures are forecast into the weekend, with highs of 17C on Saturday and 16C on Sunday. The news comes as forecasters suggest a brewing El Niño weather event could reach “super-strength”, further intensifying global warmth over the next year or so. The term El Niño is used to describe the warming of the sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, usually in the central-east equatorial Pacific. When sea temperatures in the tropical region rise by more than 0.5C, the long-term average, an El Niño event is declared. El Niño is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer-than-average weather. Warm springtime temperatures expected this week with highs of 18C forecast …

Super El Niño 2026: What It Means And What To Expect

Super El Niño 2026: What It Means And What To Expect

Published by Sam Flores

Expert comment provided by Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London, Prof Bill McGuire. He is also the author of The Fate of the World: A History And Future Of The Climate Crisis, due out on 21 May. The start of spring is usually considered a little early to predict a weather phenomenon known as an El Niño, which involves the warming of the ocean surface and is linked to extreme weather events. That’s down to a factor called the “spring predictability barrier”; from March to May, the climate systems of the Pacific Ocean are unusually unpredictable. But many experts have cautiously done so anyway. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has given greater odds than ever that we’ll have an El Niño in place by midsummer. Every single model ensemble member involved in the recent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts release – and there were over 20 of them – said there’s likely to be a pretty strong El Niño by June. In fact, some predict a “super El …

Get Ready for a Year of Chaotic Weather in the US

Get Ready for a Year of Chaotic Weather in the US

Published by skeptic

Despite being declared the third-hottest year on record, 2025 was a relatively quiet year for climate disasters in the US. No major hurricanes made landfall, while the total number of acres burned in wildfires last year—a way of measuring the intensity of wildfire season—fell below the 10-year average. But starting this week, the West is experiencing what looks to be a record-breaking heat wave, while forecasting models predict that a strong El Niño event is likely to emerge later this year. These two unrelated phenomena could set the stage for a long stretch of unpredictable and extreme weather reaching into next year, compounding the effects of a climate that’s getting hotter and hotter thanks to human activity. First, there’s the heat. Beginning this week and heading into next, a massive ridge of high-pressure air will bring record-breaking temperatures to the American West. The National Weather Service predicts that temperature records across multiple states are set to be broken in dozens of locations, stretching as far east as Missouri and Tennessee. The NWS has issued heat …

Earth’s distance from the Sun found to dramatically alter seasons

Earth’s distance from the Sun found to dramatically alter seasons

Published by Jenni Sidey

A strip of cool water stretches west from South America along the equator, helping set the pace for some of the planet’s most important weather swings. That Pacific “cold tongue” helps steer the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which can influence winter rain in California, drought in parts of Asia, and weather across much of North America. Now, a model-based study suggests that one overlooked force helps drive that cold tongue’s yearly cycle: the changing distance between Earth and the sun. That idea may sound odd at first, since the seasons are usually explained by Earth’s axial tilt, not by the slight oval shape of its orbit. Yet the new work, published in Nature, argues that this distance effect is not a small side note in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Instead, it appears to create its own annual cycle, one that combines with the better-known tilt effect and changes the timing and strength of the cold tongue over very long stretches of time. Schematic of the Earth’s orbital configuration. The Earth’s orbit around the Sun …