Key takeaways Incidents of hybrid warfare in Europe – excluding drone incursions – dropped in 2025 after hitting a high in 2024. There are a few possible explanations: European intelligence agencies may be better at blocking attacks, the Kremlin may be looking to achieve its objectives in Ukraine via negotiations with the US, or Russia could have decided to re-evaluate its hybrid-warfare strategy. Incidents of hybrid warfare risk increasing in 2026 with large-scale attacks and influence operations as elections approach in several European nations including France. Human rights activist Vladimir Ossetchkine was preparing dinner with his wife and children at their home in Biarritz when he noticed a small red dot travelling across the room. Then it zeroed in on him. Ossetchkine immediately threw himself to the ground, as did his family – all of whom managed to survive the September 12 assassination attempt. One month later, four French residents were charged with trying to kill Ossetchkine, who is the director of an NGO that advocates for human rights in Russian prisons and who has lived in France since fleeing Russia 10 years ago.  ‘Irregular, covert operations’ Were the Biarritz snipers working on the Kremlin’s orders? Some of those arrested were originally …