Backcasting: Why and How the Past and Present Drive the Future
Backcasting is one of several methods futurists use to understand possible futures. Futurists, of course, cannot “tell the future,” but they work hard to offer realistic scenarios for others to aim for and work toward in their respective lives and/or lines of work. And, if enough people work towards a particular scenario, the likelihood of it being fulfilled will of course be bigger. This method differs from two other more commonly used futures studies methods, namely “forecasting” and “foresight.” Forecasting is what most corporate executives use when they want to engage in longer-term planning. It is a fairly simple method of extrapolation, using historical and present-day data to draw a curve in a diagram and then extrapolate it according to the planning period in question, whether it be a quarter, a year, or two to three years. Nevertheless, in this kind of fairly basic analysis, one must also take known and/or assumed influences into consideration, such as short-term economic, demographic, or climatic changes, expected technological developments, new competitors entering, or existing ones leaving one’s market …
