Massive polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, speaks during a primary election night party at First Avenue on August 11, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Stephen Maturen | Getty Images State Rep. Francesca Hong was supposed to win Tuesday’s Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by around 20 percentage points, according to the latest public polling. Instead, the Democratic socialist lost by less than 1 percentage point. Hong’s stunning loss to the more moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is the latest in a string of massive polling misses in primary contests for the 2026 midterm elections. The misses come as more money than ever is flowing into the electoral process, underscored by the emergence of prediction markets opening up widespread betting on elections. In Minnesota on Tuesday night, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., by nearly 20 percentage points despite some recent polls of the Democratic Senate race showing a tight contest. Last week in Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed won his primary by only 1 percentage point after polls …









