(Alamy)
5 min read
Andy Burnham remains the favourite to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister, after the Labour leader faces his biggest crisis to date.
At last week’s local elections, Labour lost more than 1,000 councillors to Reform UK, the Greens, and the Tories in its northern heartlands, London and even Wales, where it has held power since the Senedd’s inception.
Starmer attempted to reset his premiership with a speech on Monday but it fell flat, leading to more than 90 MPs calling for him to resign, four junior ministers qutting government, and Wes Streeting leaving his job as health secretary.
Meanwhile, former minister Josh Simons announced on Thursday that he would be giving up his Makerfield constituency – after being elected for the first time just two years ago – to allow Burnham a shot at re-entering Parliament via a by-election.
The core group of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) officers will then meet to discuss the waiver – a meeting sources expect to take place this weekend. It is widely expected that Burnham’s request will be granted, after Downing Street briefed that it would not block Burnham as it did in January.
The Prime Minister remains a damaged figure with his authority ebbing away each day. Even serving ministers are now openly calling for the party’s ruling body to allow the Manchester mayor to stand as a candidate in Makerfield.
If he wins the by-election – which is far from a shoo-in – some MPs expect there to be a ‘Burnham coronation’, where he becomes leader without the contest going to the members.
Winning Makerfield would also increase Burnham’s standing in the Parliamentary Labour Party, showing his colleagues that he can defeat Reform UK at the ballot box.
“There are going to have to be some big pivots,” one MP on the Right of the party told PoliticsHome, “but I think he is the only one who can unite the party.”
While Burnham’s bid is highly likely to be approved, senior figures have reservations over the costs incurred over his potential return. If successful, it would trigger a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester and potentially a subsequent leadership contest.
Yet many are expecting there to be a surge in the number of MPs joining the party and regularly donating to Labour in the wake of Burnham becoming Labour leader.
“I think there will be [a bounce] – he’s clearly the members’ favourite,” a soft-Left source told PoliticsHome. “There’s a clear argument for allowing him back on the grounds of reviving the party as well as winning the by-election.”
On Friday morning, Team Burnham got their heads together for the first time this morning to think through what the campaign will look like. Many MPs and activists have also travelled up this morning to start campaigning for Labour ahead of what will be a hotly contested by-election.
So far there is no sign of who the Reform UK candidate will be. A name which is being circulated is Robert Kenyon, the Makerfield candidate who won 32 per cent in 2024. One aide told the Spectator magazine “he’s our Hannah Spencer,” referring to his job as a plumber. It would help the party emphasise its local roots in a high-profile, high-stakes race.
Meanwhile, Streeting’s stock has risen again after facing a barrage of briefing from ministers and No 10.
He resigned from Cabinet on Thursday after saying it was “clear” Starmer will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election. Streeting has also backed Burnham’s desire to be selected as the Labour candidate in the Makerfield by-election.
A Streeting supporter told PoliticsHome: “I think we have two great talents and Andy has had the freedom to say what he thinks and now Wes over the next few weeks will have the same freedom and people will be pleasantly surprised at the personality and ideas that emerge.”
Figures in No 10 were claiming he had just over half the number of MPs needed to trigger leadership election and formally challenge the prime minister. However, Streeting aides have since said that he has more than the required 81 MPs needed, but have claimed many of his supporters remain in government and stressed that they do not want to bring down the Prime Minister’s administration.
Streeting’s support comes from the moderate wing of the party and the 2024 intake of Labour MPs, particularly the Scottish PLP which includes Zubir Ahmed – who resigned as health minister this week – Mel Ward and Alan Gemell.
Out of all this Angela Rayner is likely to be the king maker in any leadership contest between Streeting and Burnham.
Rayner has dealt with her tax affairs with HMRC after paying back £40,000 in unpaid stamp duty.
The Ashton-under-Lyne MP in a statement after the local elections said it was a grave mistake to block the Manchester mayor from running as a candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Fundamentally, only two candidates are likely have the numbers to challenge Starmer and they are Streeting and Burnham – if the latter can win a difficult by-election.
Burnham aides have been bandying around the acronym ABC – Andy By Conference, allowing him to settle in as Labour leader and set out a new vision by September to the party faithful in Liverpool.
Whatever happens, events seem to be out of the prime minister’s control and his authority irreparably wounded.
MPs, even those who have been loyal to him throughout this government, believe the end is near for the prime minister. Whether they like it or not, the majority of the PLP expect a new leader by the autumn – with a pivot to the Left.