If there’s one unifying ethos among the one percent, it’s control at all costs. In normal times, money really can provide some buffer against the whims of the world. But this is much less true in an era marked by persistent wars.
There are, however, work-arounds for those willing to pay premiums for certain routes. Over spring break in March, Dr. Doft, her husband, and two sons went to Thailand. They deliberately took an Asian airline carrier to avoid stops in the Middle East—something they will also do this summer on their trip to the Asia-Pacific region.
Similarly, Upper East Side–based art collector and former Christie’s specialist Tianyue Jiang says that given the possibility of airline fuel being rationed, she’ll streamline her summer travel to Italy, France, and Greece by avoiding connecting flights, sticking to larger, more international airlines to dodge cancellations, and taking trains or boats for inter-city and island transfers.
Even that will be more expensive with fuel surcharges, according to David Zipkin, cofounder of Tradewind Aviation, which operates both private and scheduled routes. “In our case, it’s only about an 8% price increase. I don’t think that will deter summer plans, but if higher prices continue into fall, we’ll see a big drop in demand,” he says.
Last summer was different, more of a “book it and figure it out later” vibe, according to Matt Butler, a travel adviser with Fora who often plans six-figure vacations. “This summer, people are doing the math—and checking the temperature. Between pricey flights, $2,000-per-night minimum hotel nights, and 100-degree heat in the Med, my clients are questioning the whole proposition. Toss in the anxiety about global politics, and Nantucket, Jackson Hole, and Hawaii all start looking like very compelling alternatives,” he says.
According to McNeill, another Knightsbridge client chose to spend four months in Sag Harbor rather than going to Italy. But that option won’t be available for every white-shoe wannabe: As a recent headline in The Real Deal put it, “Tight Inventory Is Rankling the Hamptons’ Resi Market.”
Instead of August in Naples, Italy, travelers might turn to Naples, Florida. The newly renovated Naples Beach Club, a Four Seasons Resort, is seeing steady booking for the summer months, typically considered this region’s very lowest season. The Pendry in Park City, Utah, more known for its ski slopes, has seen a 15% uptick in summer demand compared to last year, says John Rolfs, the hotel’s general manager.
Matt Deitch, managing principal at Southworth—a private real-estate development with locations in the Bahamas, Massachusetts, and Colorado, where homes start in the seven-figures—has noticed members taking fewer international trips, while there have also been record-high occupancy rates during school vacations this year. He predicts the trend will continue into July and August.
Travel patterns are evolving based on favorable geography. Butler says he is sending more clients to French Polynesia because “it’s totally secluded from the nukes and cheaper than the Maldives for the same overwater villa experience.” Still, even the merely wealthy—those who fly in the front of the plane, but not their own plane—are tortured by a looming question: “Is it safe to travel internationally?”