Gambling is defined as “risking something of value in the hopes of obtaining something of greater value” (American Psychiatric Association, 2013). In light of the pervasiveness of online gambling and sports betting, all counselors (rather than only those located near casinos) must be able to recognize and respond to problematic or addictive gambling behaviors among clients.
Publicly accessible prediction market platforms have created spaces where gambling-like behaviors can occur, and may influence gambling disorder prevalence rates (Johnson & Chan, 2026). Kalshi (founded in 2018) and Polymarket (founded in 2020) are two popular prediction market platforms, and established financial technology (“fintech”) companies like Robinhood have recently incorporated prediction market hubs into their platforms. To underscore their rise in popularity, the Pew Research Center reported that global trading on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from below $5 billion in late 2025 to approximately $24 billion in April of this year (Radde, 2026). Thus, counselors must be informed regarding the nature of prediction markets and potential risks.
What is a prediction market?
At their core, prediction markets invite individuals to invest and trade on the outcome of future events (called event contracts). Participants buy and sell binary (yes/no) contracts reflecting their belief about the outcome of a future event. Prices for contracts are determined by probabilities linked to the general market’s consensus (which change in real time). Correct predictions earn the participant money ($1 per share), while incorrect predictions earn zero dollars.
The range of future events on which to make predictions is extensive. Topics include sports, politics, culture, climate, education, entertainment, commodities, crypto, tech, mentions, and more. For example, participants can wager on the number of tweets a celebrity makes on a given day, the winner of an esports match, nominees for political office, unemployment rates in a particular month, temperature of a specific city, gas prices, and the number of times announcers say certain words during sporting events. Counselors who are not familiar with prediction markets may benefit from exploring the platforms to see first-hand the broad range of event contracts and real-time shifting of odds.
Are prediction markets a form of gambling?
Several scholars have posited that prediction markets operate in the same way as gambling activities (Hardoy, 2026; Johnson & Chan, 2026; Packin & Rabinovitz, 2026), and the American Gaming Association (AGA, 2026a) purports that prediction markets are offering illegal, unregulated sports betting. This claim is disputed, however, by those who refer to prediction markets as a form of investing. Indeed, a study by the AGA (2026b) revealed that 28 percent of those who bet on sports event contracts say they are investing, which the AGA notes is misleading consumers. Part of the confusion lies in the fact that prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and use words such as trading, investing, and buying shares, thus distinguishing themselves from gambling and sports betting. Robinhood (2026) specifically addresses the differences between prediction markets and gambling, noting the emphasis on trading with other participants on an exchange, rather than making one-time wagers against the house.
Yet many question whether participation in prediction markets is at its core “risking something of value in the hopes of obtaining something of greater value” (APA, 2013, p. 587), which would constitute gambling. Indeed, the constant availability, opportunities for continuous play, chasing losses, variable ratio reinforcement scheduling, incentives, push notifications, increase in public ads, and the use of digital currency may increase prediction market engagement among those with vulnerabilities (e.g., youth, those with risk factors for addiction), making these platforms a potential public health issue (Louis et al., 2026; Packin & Rabinovitz, 2026). The easy access and constant availability of prediction markets may influence the prevalence of gambling addiction and lead to other negative consequences (e.g., insider trading, influencing sports, outcome manipulation).
Working with clients who participate in prediction markets
Although prediction markets may not be problematic for all participants, some individuals, especially those with risk factors that increase their susceptibility to addiction (e.g., genetic predisposition, mental health concerns, histories of trauma, early exposure), may demonstrate signs of gambling addiction. Thus, when working with clients who participate in prediction markets, counselors must be aware of the criteria of gambling disorder.
As outlined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5; APA, 2013), gambling disorder is marked by endorsing four or more of the following criteria within a year: needing to gamble with more money to achieve desired level of excitement, experiencing restless or irritability when trying to stop gambling, unsuccessful attempts to cut back or stop gambling, mentally preoccupied with gambling, gambling when experiencing negative mood states, chasing losses, lying about gambling behavior, putting significant opportunities or relationships at risk due to gambling, and relying on others to bail them out of difficult financial situations. These gambling behaviors may take the form of online or offline casino games, traditional or fantasy sports betting, or potentially, prediction markets.
In sum, all counselors must be able to recognize the signs of behavioral addictions (i.e., compulsivity, loss of control, continued despite negative consequences, and craving/mental preoccupation; ASAM, 2019; Giordano, 2022; Kardefelt-Winther, 2017) and apply an addiction conceptualization when needed. Counselors can utilize formal assessment instruments and diagnostic criteria to identify gambling addiction, engage in empirically supported treatment options (e.g., Motivational Interviewing, CBT, self-exclusion, financial recovery plans), and potentially recommend peer support groups (e.g., Gamblers Anonymous) to best serve clients. Given the rise in popularity of prediction markets, preparation to recognize and respond to behavioral addictions, like gambling, is an urgently needed training issue for mental health professionals.
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