Researchers at Northumbria University have been awarded £4 million to investigate one of space science’s most persistent mysteries: why Earth’s radiation belts behave so erratically.
The five-year project aims to improve forecasting of space weather and strengthen protections for satellites that underpin modern life.
Leader of the project, Professor of Space Physics Clare Watt, explained its importance: “Despite decades of research and sophisticated NASA missions that have sampled these harsh environments directly, the radiation belts have remained frustratingly unpredictable.
“This project will help us understand whether that’s because we don’t fully grasp the physics involved, or because parts of the system are inherently chaotic and sensitive to tiny changes in conditions.”
Understanding radiation belts
Radiation belts are zones encircling Earth where charged particles become trapped by the planet’s magnetic field. Within these regions, particles can accelerate to near-light speeds, creating a hostile environment for spacecraft.
For operators of satellite systems, the stakes are high. Fluctuations in radiation belts can damage electronics, degrade solar panels, and disrupt services such as GPS navigation, telecommunications, and weather monitoring.
Yet despite decades of study, predicting how these belts will evolve remains a major scientific challenge.
A volatile and poorly understood system
One of the defining features of radiation belts is their volatility. Their intensity and size can shift dramatically over hours or days, often in response to solar activity, such as bursts of charged particles from the Sun.
What remains unclear is how these changes unfold. Scientists still lack reliable models to determine whether the belts will intensify or weaken, or expand and contract, following solar disturbances.
This unpredictability has limited the ability to anticipate risks to satellite infrastructure.
A major research effort led by the UK
Clare Watt’s team will combine data from international spacecraft missions with advanced computational models to better understand how energy flows through Earth’s magnetosphere and into the radiation belts.
The research has been backed by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) as part of its Large Awards programme, which supports ambitious, high-impact scientific work.
Collaborators include Professor Jonny Rae and Dr Sarah Bentley from Northumbria, alongside Dr Oliver Allanson of the University of Birmingham and Dr Ravindra Desai of the University of Warwick.
Two key questions driving the research
At the heart of the project are two fundamental questions. First, what determines how much energy from the solar wind reaches Earth’s radiation belts? Second, can small variations in conditions trigger large-scale changes in the system?
Answering these questions could reveal whether current limitations stem from gaps in scientific understanding or from the inherently chaotic nature of the system itself. Either outcome would have significant implications for how scientists model space weather.
From theory to practical forecasting
A central goal of the project is to translate scientific insights into practical forecasting tools. By refining models of radiation belts, the team hopes to improve predictions of space weather events and their potential impact on satellites.
The researchers plan to develop recommendations for integrating real-time data into forecasting systems and for using ensemble modelling techniques to generate probabilistic predictions.
This approach could provide satellite operators with clearer risk assessments, rather than relying on single-point forecasts.
The wider UK space weather effort
Northumbria University already plays a leading role in space weather research.
Its Solar and Space Physics group contributes to the UK’s national SWIMMR programme, a £20m initiative designed to enhance the country’s ability to monitor and forecast space weather.
The programme supports the UK Met Office in developing operational capabilities in this area.
A unique natural laboratory
Earth’s radiation belts offer scientists a rare opportunity. They are the only location where high-energy astrophysical processes of this kind can be studied directly.
Insights gained here could extend beyond Earth, informing our understanding of similar phenomena across the universe.
By tackling the unpredictability of radiation belts, the Northumbria-led project aims to close a critical knowledge gap.
If successful, it could mark a step change in how space weather is forecast, and how the vital satellite systems that modern society depends on are protected.