Still, for all the panic in Westminster, it seems there will still be no immediate move to remove the prime minister. A handful of members of parliament have publicly questioned his leadership, but Cabinet ministers and backbench organizers have not crossed the threshold from despair to open revolt — yet.

Starmer will survive for now because the party, particularly its influential soft left faction, appears to be waiting for Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. The mayor’s allies expect him to return to Westminster within months via a by-election triggered by the resignation of a sympathetic backbench Labour MP — a prospect that is already shaping calculations inside the party.

Burnham’s star is currently on the rise while that of former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is waning amid fears she is less popular with voters. Health Secretary Wes Streeting  also enjoys support from Labour MPs, but he is unlikely to win a majority among the grassroots party members who elect the leader.

Geopolitics is also buying Starmer time. Many senior Labour figures maintain the view that voters would not forgive the party for toppling a prime minister during a period of war and economic uncertainty. In their view, Starmer should absorb the political damage from the coming cost-of-living pressures caused by the war in Iran.

But that will only delay his fate.

Pressure is already building inside government for Starmer to set a departure timetable and oversee an orderly transition. The prime minister will resist these demands, warning that announcing an exit date would instantly make him a lame duck, unsettling financial markets already nervous about the state of the U.K.’s public finances and meager growth outlook.