Corrections Vs Bears: How The Fed Rewired The Market
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, After three decades of watching market cycles play out from both sides of the trade, I’ve come to a simple conclusion: Wall Street’s love of simple rules is one of the most dangerous aspects of investing. When stocks fall 10%, it’s just a “correction.” However, if they decline 20%, it’s a “bear market.” Simple, clean, repeatable, and printed on every financial media graphic from here to Tokyo. The problem is that the definitions of a correction and bear market have not been updated since Alan Shaw developed them at Smith Barney in the 1960s. Moreover, the market those definitions were designed to describe no longer exists. Currently, the S&P 500 index is roughly 83% above its long-term trend line, with the Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) hovering near 40. That valuation level was only exceeded once in the history of American financial markets. The Fed’s balance sheet, still at $6.7 trillion, is more than eight times its pre-2008 level. Under these conditions, the old bear-market definition no longer measures what it was built to measure. A 20% …


