French President Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver a highly solemn speech on Monday, March 2, against the backdrop of one of France’s four ballistic missile submarines, docked at the Ile Longue in Brest harbor, Brittany. At this location rarely open to the public, Macron is expected to breach the topic of nuclear deterrence in a speech that takes place only once per presidential term, where every word carries significant weight due to the topic’s sensitive nature.

Macron’s last address on the subject, in 2020, drew little attention outside military circles, but this speech will be closely watched across Europe. On the one hand, this heightened interest stems from Russia’s repeated nuclear arms threats since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On the other hand, it is tied to increasingly serious doubts – about the reliability of the United States as a security partner since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025.

Macron could clarify France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine, particularly the “European dimension” of its “vital interests.” “There will no doubt be some significant shifts and developments,” the Elysée said in a statement. Currently, any attack on France’s “vital interests” could trigger a response aimed at inflicting “absolutely unacceptable damage” on the adversary’s “centers of power.” The French president’s speech could therefore mark a turning point in the far-reaching campaign that Paris has undertaken for several months to promote the French nuclear umbrella to its European allies.

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