Perhaps the 1998 Grammys best illustrate the dilemma that faces the Recording Academy when its members turn in their ballots every year. Paula Cole, Erykah Badu, and Fiona Apple, young women who found commercial success with artistically impeccable albums, were the big contenders that year. (The artist formerly known as Puff Daddy and boy band Hanson were also nominated.) Ultimately, the Grammys chose Cole—who was also up for album, record, and song of the year. How could voters have known that Badu and Apple would have long, prolific careers, continuing to inspire generations even in the age of social media?

Those who believe in the curse would argue that losing best new artist may actually be a better indication of career longevity. For proof, look at the lengthy list of contemporary stars who have had successful careers despite missing out on the award; in addition to Lamar, Musgraves, and Sheeran, there’s Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, Drake, SZA, and Nicki Minaj. Due to the Recording Academy’s arcane rules, some artists, including Beyoncé and Cardi B, were never even eligible for a nomination.

As a counterpoint, consider the case of Billie Eilish. When she won best new artist in 2020, at the same Grammys where she also took home album of the year, song of the year, and record of the year, Eilish immediately drew comparisons to Christopher Cross, the yacht rock pioneer who pulled off the same feat in 1981…then never took home a Grammy at any other ceremony. Even Eilish, who was 18 at the time, seemed sheepish about the size of her haul that night. But many Grammys and two Oscar statuettes later, it’s impossible to see Eilish as a mere flash in the pan. Her win was also far from the only time that the Grammys made a good bet on an obvious talent: Sade, Mariah Carey, Sheryl Crow, Lauryn Hill, and Adele all won best new artist, and all have been beloved ever since.

A team of French creativity researchers actually decided to investigate whether winning best new artist helped or hampered recipients, publishing a study in 2023. After analyzing sales numbers, Billboard reviews, and the productive years of nominees from 1980 to 1990, they found that the award winners were, in fact, more likely to have better sales and Billboard evaluations throughout their careers—though the apparent effect of winning best new artist was small.

In any given year, the outcome of best new artist often reflects the state of the awards show more broadly. The Grammys muddled through multiple controversies in the years following the Macklemore debacle, including being put on blast by prominent pop stars like Drake, who alleged that the show was biased; The Weeknd, who accused the awards of corruption; and Ariana Grande, who claimed that show producers were difficult to work with. Former Recording Academy president and CEO Neil Portnow left when his contract was up after drawing criticism for saying, in 2018, that women needed to “step up” if they wanted to be better represented at the ceremony. When she won best new artist in 2019, Dua Lipa specifically mocked his comment, saying at the podium: “I guess this year we really stepped up.”