As Iran targeted countries hosting US military bases across the Middle East with retaliatory strikes following a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had a pointed message for the Tehran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Read more Live: Iran fires retaliatory missiles at Israel, US bases after air strikes
“In light of the serious developments unfolding in the region, I once again call on all Lebanese to act with wisdom and patriotism, placing Lebanon and the Lebanese people’s interests above any other consideration,” he said.
“I reiterate that we will not accept anyone dragging the country into adventures that threaten its security and unity.”
As the world waits to see whether Iran’s allies across the region join in a conflict that already risks engulfing the Middle East, FRANCE 24 spoke to Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at Washington’s Arab Gulf States Institute.
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FRANCE 24: Lebanon’s prime minister has warned against the country being dragged into military “adventures”, as he put it, in a message that seems directed at Hezbollah. What is the risk here of a regional war?
It’s significant. Among Iran’s assets – among the tools Iran might use to retaliate in addition to their own missiles and drones, naval forces and special forces – are these militia groups that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force operates and runs in various Middle Eastern countries.
Hezbollah is the granddaddy of them, based in Lebanon, where I am now. But there’s also the various al-Ḥashd ash-Sha’bi groups, as they’re called in Iraq, who are much newer and more chaotic and less coordinated. But they’re still well-armed and pose a potential threat to various entities, including American forces in Iraq.
Then there’s the Houthis in Yemen, and arguably you could include [Palestinian militant group] Hamas in this list, but Hamas is just in a marriage of convenience. They’re not Shiites; they weren’t on the same side in the Syrian war at all, for example, and so they’re not really a part of this network. But there are at least three major assets there, especially Hezbollah but also the Houthis and the Iraqi groups, that Iran could use to try to retaliate against the US and US-related interests, Arab interests, Gulf countries’ interests, Israel, et cetera.
FRANCE 24: How much of a blow could groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas deliver, given how their capabilities have been degraded from recent Israeli operations?
Hamas is usually thrown into this mix, but I think inaccurately. Hamas is really not part of this core group. That’s why it took a year and a half for Israel to fully drag Hezbollah – and they did drag Hezbollah – into the war that began with the [October 7, 2023] Hamas attack against Israel, because Hezbollah was trying to stay out of it while remaining credible by doing some things that they thought were the minimum necessary.
Hezbollah is degraded, but it remains armed. It remains capable. It remains potentially a threat. The Houthis certainly do, and the Houthis are not necessarily that degraded. And the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to try to attack Israel or the neighbouring Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and even the UAE. Also their ability to disrupt and harass shipping in the Gulf region, in the Gulf of Aden, in the Bab al-Mandab strait, in the Red Sea, et cetera, has been proven to be very significant.
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Late last year they started backing off – there was a tacit agreement reached with the United States that they would stop harassing shipping and the Americans would stop routinely bombing them, and the Israelis too. So that’s been in place. But of course, this could be a prime moment for both Hezbollah and the Houthis to unleash themselves, supposedly on behalf of the Iranians and indeed, probably, at their instructions and behest.
The Houthis, though, have their own agenda. Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups are just at the service of Iran. If Iran insists they act, even though it’s a crazy thing from Lebanon’s point of view – even though it will be a catastrophe for the Lebanese again – I think Hezbollah would probably have to act if the Iranians absolutely insisted. And vice versa: if the Iranians absolutely insist they don’t act, even if they want to, they probably won’t. They are a wholly-owned subsidiary. The same applies to most of the groups in Iraq. That’s less true with the Houthis, and it’s not true at all of Hamas.