A recent study published in Political Research Quarterly provides evidence that public support for transgender women participating in women’s sports declined substantially between 2019 and 2024. The research suggests this shift is linked to political messaging that frames transgender women as a threat to female athletes, particularly influencing conservative voters. These findings highlight how laws originally designed to prevent discrimination can be reinterpreted to exclude newly visible minority groups.

Political scientists James N. Druckman and Elizabeth A. Sharrow conducted the study to understand how society decides who belongs to specific protected groups. In the United States, certain groups receive legal protections based on their social identities, such as race, religion, or sex.

When new groups seek recognition and legal protection, debates often arise over the exact boundaries of these categories. The researchers base their work on the theory of social categorization. This concept outlines how people understand who belongs to a marginalized group.

This process involves a person’s individual identity, how society perceives that person, and how legal institutions define the group. When these three levels do not align perfectly, political actors can exploit the disconnect. They often do this by introducing an exclusion frame, a specific type of messaging that socially constructs a minority group as dangerous or deviant.

The initial data collection happened serendipitously for the researchers. “We had written a book on gender equality in college sports, looking at why there have not been more aggressive policies toward gender equality in the post-Title IX era,” explained Druckman, the Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. “We collected data for that book, entitled Equality Unfulfilled, in 2018 to 2019 with student athletes, coaches, athletic administrators, and members of the public.”

The researchers gathered public opinion information without realizing how relevant it would become. “On those surveys we included items to measure attitudes about participation of transgender athletes on teams that align with their gender identities,” Druckman noted. At the time, the scientists did not use that specific data in their book.

“Then the question of transgender sports participation became very salient and politicized, and so we took advantage of the earlier data and collected new data in 2024 to see if changes occurred after a period of intense politicization,” Druckman said. To evaluate these shifts, the researchers analyzed data from the two distinct public opinion surveys. The first survey was conducted in the spring of 2019 and included 1,508 American adults.

The second survey took place in August 2024 and polled 1,506 American adults. In both surveys, respondents answered questions about their political affiliations and their attitudes toward sports. A key measure asked participants to rate their support for allowing transgender women to participate on women’s college athletic teams.

Participants responded on a seven-point scale ranging from strongly oppose to strongly support. The surveys also measured public support for Title IX. This is a federal civil rights law enacted to ensure equal treatment and opportunities for men and women in education and school sports.

Participants were given a straightforward definition of Title IX and asked to rate their agreement with its requirements. In their analysis, the scientists accounted for various factors that might influence a person’s opinion. These variables included age, education level, race, income, and personal beliefs about gender roles.

They also controlled for sports-related experiences, such as whether respondents had played varsity sports in college or currently coached a team. The data show a massive shift in public opinion. “The main finding is that support for transgender women/girls participation on women/girls teams substantially declined over the five-year period of 2019 to 2024,” Druckman told PsyPost.

“Moreover, for Republicans the relationship between support for a gender equity policy (Title IX) and support for trans-inclusion flipped from positive to negative,” Druckman continued. The researchers suggest this reversal happened because conservative voters internalized new messaging. “The shift presumably reflects the rhetoric on the issue that emphasized the threat of trans-participation for cisgender women,” Druckman added.

Druckman noted that the results were somewhat unexpected, pointing to the complete shift in Republican attitudes. “The extent of the aforementioned flip, we thought that relationship would change but not entirely flip,” he said. Among Democratic respondents, the trend was different, as those who supported Title IX in 2024 still tended to support transgender inclusion.

In the 2024 survey, the scientists added several new questions to capture a wider picture of public opinion. These additions asked about support for transgender youth playing on girls’ teams and support for government bans on transgender athletes. The newer survey also asked respondents to rate the degree to which they perceived transgender women in sports as a cultural threat.

The responses to these new questions mirrored the political divide. The researchers found that Republicans who supported Title IX were highly likely to view transgender women as a cultural threat. Democrats who supported Title IX did not exhibit this same threat response.

While the published study focuses on everyday citizens, the researchers noticed broader patterns. “The paper looks only at the public but we find similar results with those in athletics,” Druckman said.

While the study provides a detailed look at changing public opinion, the findings come with a few limitations. “Yes, the data are two cross-sections and so we do not know how individuals changed,” Druckman explained. This means the researchers polled different groups of people in 2019 and 2024, rather than tracking the exact same individuals over time.

Additionally, the scientists cannot definitively prove what caused the shift in attitudes. “We also do not know the precise causal mechanism, whether it was rhetoric, experiences, etc.,” Druckman noted. Another limitation involves the scope of the questions asked in the initial 2019 survey.

Because the original survey was designed for a slightly different project, it did not include questions about respondents’ religious beliefs or traditional moral values. Future studies could incorporate these variables to better understand the personal beliefs that drive opposition to transgender rights. Moving forward, the scientists plan to continue exploring how people categorize social identities.

“We want to understand how opinions evolve on issues that involve individuals who have ambiguous claims to being in a category,” Druckman said. “Here, transgender women in the category to play women’s sports.”

The study, “The Politics of Social Categorization: The Case of Transgender Women’s Athletic Participation in the United States,” was authored by James N. Druckman and Elizabeth A. Sharrow.