The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first Star Wars film to open in cinemas in seven years, is likely to open to a franchise low at the box office – making this Star Wars Day one of the most worrying in recent memory.
The fourth day in May is known as the annual celebration of all things Star Wars, inspired by a pun on the franchise catchphrase “may the force be with you”, with many fans celebrating the series today (4 May), marrying their spouses in Star Wars-themed weddings today, or buying Star Wars products.
But few at Disney, the franchise’s backers, will be amused by early tracking data which suggests the forthcoming The Mandalorian and Grogu movie will struggle at the box office. Current predictions suggest that it will open to a historic low, and even lower than 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which is widely recognised as the franchise’s financial nadir.
The new film has so far received mixed notices from fans, with a recent trailer leading Star Wars obsessives to claim it looks more like a TV show than a movie.
“Looks like Mandalorian and Grogu is aimed squarely at five to 12-year-olds, which is a billion dollar market,” tweeted one peeved fan. “It’s gen alpha Ewok Adventures.”
Sources told The Hollywood Reporter last week that the film will open in the $80m (£59m) range over the Memorial Day Weekend in the US this month. While Disney has yet to push into their final weeks of promotion ahead of 22 May, $80m will be a concerning number for a franchise that has spent much of the last few years on television.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is a big-screen spin-off of the hit Mandalorian series, with Pedro Pascal’s masked bounty hunter teaming up with Grogu – aka Baby Yoda – to rescue Jabba the Hutt’s estranged son Rotta the Hutt, who will be voiced by The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White.
The film carries a reported $165m (£121m) price tag before marketing costs, the lowest in Star Wars movie history, and marks the first Star Wars feature to be directed by Iron Man’s Jon Favreau. He previously directed, wrote and produced episodes of The Mandalorian, as well as the limited series The Book of Boba Fett and Star Wars: Skeleton Crew.
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The lowest opening weekend of the Star Wars series is currently Solo, a prequel film about a young Han Solo (Alden Ehrenreich), which was met by mixed reviews and ultimately bombed at the global box office – grossing a total of $393m (£289m) against a production budget of $365m (£269m).
The Mandalorian and Grogu opens at a troubled time for Star Wars, following a number of TV series that have divided audiences, as well as the departure of franchise chief Kathleen Kennedy. She exited Lucasfilm earlier this year, with her role succeeded by Dave Filoni, who previously served as the studio’s chief creative officer.
While the new film may not turn around the fortunes of the franchise, Disney reportedly has high hopes for 2027’s Starfighter, which will be lead by Ryan Gosling and is directed by Deadpool’s Shawn Levy.
Levy told Collider in 2025 that Starfighter does not have the burden of carrying storylines or characters from older Star Wars properties, explaining: “It is an all-new non-sequel, non-prequel adventure. It’s new characters, it’s a new timeline. It inherits legacy themes, but it’s really trying to give Star Wars [fans], and just movie audiences, something fresh, something new.”
The Mandalorian and Grogu will arrive in cinemas on 22 May.