Britain’s Borrowing Outlook Darkens As Energy Shock Deepens
Via City AM, The OBR says it underestimated the fiscal damage from the 2022 energy shock and will apply those lessons to the latest Middle East-driven price surge. Higher oil and gas prices could increase UK borrowing through debt interest, welfare payments, and pressure on departmental budgets. The Bank of England has warned that a severe energy shock could push inflation above 6% and force tighter monetary policy. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been warned that government borrowing is set to spike as a result of the Iran war, as the Office for Budget Responsibility admitted it had underestimated the effects of the last energy price shock. In a review of its forecasting models, the OBR suggested it had learned lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which led to gas prices rising by around five times. It said the overall impact on public finances “was to significantly increase government borrowing and debt” despite some government revenue being raised by taxes on energy companies’ profits and higher wage growth. The surge in government borrowing was driven by a rise in debt …







