Four years after Polymarket paid $1.4 million to settle with U.S. regulators and barred bets from American users, the explosive case against a soldier charged with trading on classified information is offering the prediction market a chance to come in from the cold. Subscribe to read this story ad-free Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty special forces soldier, was charged with using advance knowledge of the U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to make $440,000 via Polymarket bets. The arrest came after months of speculation in the press and on social media that insiders with access to classified information have been capitalizing on their knowledge. In fact, Van Dyke’s alleged Maduro bet was picked up by media outlets almost immediately after it occurred, though his identity was not yet known. Other successful bets that raised suspicions have involved Google’s 2025 Year in Search, the launch of OpenAI’s AI web browser and events surrounding the war with Iran. The concerns drew the attention of Michael …