All posts tagged: Polymarket

Comer launches Congress probe into insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket

Comer launches Congress probe into insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket

Published by Sam Flores

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, announced Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he is seeking information from the CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket on their efforts to prevent insider trading on their platforms. Comer’s probe is the latest in a series of congressional attempts to rein-in the platforms. “Internal records held by prediction market platforms are the only means by which bad actors can be identified and to determine whether platforms are meeting their legal obligations,” Comer wrote in a letter sent Friday to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and seen by CNBC. A similar letter, also seen by CNBC, was sent Friday to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. “Therefore, the Committee requests documents and information to better understand how Polymarket implements identity verification for domestic and international account holders, enforces geographic restrictions, and detects anomalous trading activity to prevent insider trading across its global platform,” Comer’s letter continues. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, said in a statement …

Gambling addicts are struggling as Kalshi and Polymarket explode in the US: ‘You could be betting your rent away’ | Prediction markets

Gambling addicts are struggling as Kalshi and Polymarket explode in the US: ‘You could be betting your rent away’ | Prediction markets

Published by Sam Flores

When Kevin first heard about the prediction market Kalshi, he knew deep down it would be wise to stay away. Kalshi reminded him of a weakness of his: sports betting. Kevin, who is 36 and works in law enforcement in Texas, has been a gambling addict for 18 years. It’s a problem that cost him his first marriage and forced him to file for bankruptcy. Sports betting is illegal in Texas, so Kevin used a bookie based out of the state – until his second wife changed the passwords to his bookie account. Going to a physical casino required him to get in the car and drive. But Kalshi was right there: “I could still do my sports thing and it was actually legal.” (He requested to go only by first name to speak about sensitive matters.) Despite being a recovering gambling addict, Kevin created a Kalshi account last summer, assuring his wife he wasn’t gambling. “I kind of swindled her into saying Kalshi was like stocks,” he said – not so difficult a sell, …

Low-Risk Polymarket Strategies Discovered by AI

Low-Risk Polymarket Strategies Discovered by AI

Published by skeptic

Prediction markets like Polymarket provide a unique space for traders to profit by forecasting real-world events, but success often hinges on balancing risk and reward. All About AI explores how advanced AI platforms like Codex and Cloud Code can help traders uncover low-risk, high-reward opportunities through data-driven analysis. For example, AI can identify unusual trading patterns or pinpoint optimal bid timing, offering actionable insights that refine strategies and enhance decision-making. By integrating AI into your approach, you can navigate complex market dynamics with greater precision and confidence. In this deep dive, you’ll gain insight into specific strategies such as pre-filling bids in advance to secure favorable odds and executing time-sensitive trades to capitalize on short-term opportunities. Discover how AI can assist in analyzing settlement delays, tracking market liquidity and simulating paired exposure scenarios to ensure profitability across outcomes. Whether you’re looking to optimize existing methods or explore new approaches, this breakdown offers practical steps to help you maximize returns while minimizing unnecessary risks. Using AI for Trade Analysis TL;DR Key Takeaways : AI tools like …

If You Used Insider Knowledge to Score Big on Polymarket, You May Now Be in Huge Trouble

If You Used Insider Knowledge to Score Big on Polymarket, You May Now Be in Huge Trouble

Published by José Betancourt

Sign up to see the future, today Can’t-miss innovations from the bleeding edge of science and tech The spoilsports at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission no longer want you profiting off of geopolitical turmoil and other grim happenings in the world on Polymarket — or profiting unfairly, at least. The agency’s chairman Michael Selig vowed to crack down on insider trading on the controversial prediction market, which the Trump administration has eagerly embraced. “We’re going to find them, and we’re going to bring actions,” Selig told Wired in an interview this week. Polymarket’s website is blocked in the US because trading laws prohibit wagers related to war, terrorism, and assassinations. Tons of US traders use a VPN to access it, though, and can further anonymize their transactions by using the platform’s currency of choice, crypto. That can make sussing out who’s behind suspicious bets on there a tall order, but Selig says AI tools are helping the small agency bring the bad actors to light. “You’ve got so much data,” Selig told Wired. “When we …

The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on Polymarket

The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on Polymarket

Published by skeptic

For most of the past year, it looked like prediction markets had kicked off a new golden age of fraud. On Polymarket, traders raked in fortunes from suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events like the raid on Venezuela and the Iran War. It wasn’t clear whether the US government would bother pursuing some of the most flagrant bad actors, since Polymarket’s crypto-based platform was technically offshore and not regulated or licensed within the country. Now, however, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, wants you to know that it’s watching very, very closely. The agency is searching for suspicious behavior from traders within the United States who have been sneaking onto offshore markets, including Polymarket’s crypto platform—which is blocked stateside—by using virtual private networks. “We’re going to find them, and we’re going to bring actions,” agency chairman Michael Selig told WIRED this week, speaking from the CFTC’s headquarters in a Washington, DC, office park called Patriots Plaza II. Selig says the agency, which is especially lean right now, is staffing up. Like so …

Huge Analysis Finds That the Average Person Is Getting Absolutely Hosed on Polymarket

Huge Analysis Finds That the Average Person Is Getting Absolutely Hosed on Polymarket

Published by José Betancourt

Sign up to see the future, today Can’t-miss innovations from the bleeding edge of science and tech The United States is in the throes of widespread gambling addiction. Sports betting ads have become practically inescapable, and smartphone apps have made it easier than ever to jump right in. Meanwhile, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have supercharged the trend, allowing anybody to place bets on anything from tomorrow’s weather to the date of an imminent military invasion. Despite a soaring cost of living, millions of Americans are pouring billions of dollars into prediction markets. And as the Wall Street Journal reports, their winnings are incredibly meager: in fact, according to the paper’s sweeping analysis, the vast majority of users are left holding the bag for a tiny proportion of accounts being run by pros, insiders, and trading firms with access to far better information and statistical capabilities than your average person. It’s a devastating reality highlighting the dire need for regulatory intervention as more than half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. But we’re not …

If You Bet on Polymarket, This New Study May Cause You Physical Pain

If You Bet on Polymarket, This New Study May Cause You Physical Pain

Published by José Betancourt

Sign up to see the future, today Can’t-miss innovations from the bleeding edge of science and tech In traditional gambling halls, it’s common knowledge that the house always wins. On newly popular prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, it’s a little different yet substantively the same: instead of the casino coming out on top, a tiny group of highly skilled traders rules the roost — their winnings subsidized by every other small-time sucker, who statistically is almost certainly you. According to a new paper by researchers at the London Business School and Yale, prediction markets are largely dominated by the top 3.14 percent of users. On a platform like Polymarket, which has a monthly active user base of around 700,000 bettors, this means around just 21,000 highly informed gamblers are coming out ahead. Everyone else is effectively flipping a coin at best, and flushing money down the drain at worst. “These accounts,” the researchers write, “generate most of the trading volume but do not systematically improve price accuracy. Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom …

US soldier pleads not guilty in first prediction market insider trading case tied to Polymarket bets

US soldier pleads not guilty in first prediction market insider trading case tied to Polymarket bets

Published by skeptic

A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier has pleaded not guilty to federal charges accusing him of using classified knowledge to profit on a prediction market, a case that is drawing fresh scrutiny to how insider information can be exploited in emerging betting platforms. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, entered his plea Tuesday in Manhattan federal court. Prosecutors say he used nonpublic details tied to a U.S. mission targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to guide bets on Polymarket, an online platform where users wager on real-world outcomes. According to the charges, Van Dyke turned roughly $33,000 in wagers into more than $400,000 by betting on developments linked to Maduro’s removal from power. Investigators say his role in planning the operation gave him access to sensitive timelines and likely outcomes before they became public. Case centers on classified information and betting Federal prosecutors have brought multiple counts, including theft of government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and unlawful financial transactions. They say the case will lean on a wide range of evidence, from cryptocurrency exchange records to …

Kalshi, Polymarket Among 27 Prediction Platforms Banned In Brazil

Kalshi, Polymarket Among 27 Prediction Platforms Banned In Brazil

Published by Jenni Sidey

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com, Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally. “We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto. The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments. Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will …

The US Military Just Arrested One of Its Soldiers for Making Ghoulish Polymarket Bets, and It Shows How Deep the Moral Rot of Prediction Markets Really Goes

The US Military Just Arrested One of Its Soldiers for Making Ghoulish Polymarket Bets, and It Shows How Deep the Moral Rot of Prediction Markets Really Goes

Published by José Betancourt

Sign up to see the future, today Can’t-miss innovations from the bleeding edge of science and tech Amid the carnage as the United States invaded Venezuela earlier this year, millions of dollars furiously changed hands on Polymarket — resulting in massive financial windfalls that immediately spurred allegations of insider trading. One anonymous bettor in particular made out like a bandit, netting some $410,000 in winnings on extremely well-timed bets that Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be “out” and that the US military would “show up in Venezuela” by January 31st. It turns out that critics were right to be suspicious. According to the US Department of Justice, one of the special ops soldiers involved in the attack, named Gannon Ken Van Dyke, is alleged to have placed over $33,000 in Polymarket wagers related to Venezuela in the days leading up to the operation. Per a DoJ statement, Van Dyke was indicted on charges including unlawful use of confidential information for person gain, commodities and wire fraud, and theft of nonpublic government information. The revelation isn’t …