First come, first served? 

Whichever agreement is ratified first could give the EU or the U.S. a first-mover advantage, with the runner-up possibly being told that Argentina has already made a commitment on the matter. 

“It is hard to see how Argentina will be able to comply with both agreements,” said Geraldo Vidigal, a Brazilian professor in international trade law at the University of Amsterdam. The protection of EU specialty cheese and meat terms was one of the “big wins” for European agriculture in the EU-Mercosur agreement, he added. 

Argentina’s move is evidence of “how stupid the EU has been in delaying and delaying and delaying the Mercosur agreement,” argued John Clarke, the EU’s former agricultural trade negotiator. In his view, the ball is now in Argentina’s court, with pressure on the EU and U.S. to get their agreements ratified first. 

Alternatively, the Argentinians could wait for a court case to settle any looming disputes, Clarke suggested.

The EU, meanwhile, is stranded by its internal divisions on the Mercosur deal, which has been over a generation in the making. During that time the bloc has lost its standing as the Latin American bloc’s largest trade partner to a rising China.

Although European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen finally signed the accord at the start of the year, and EU member countries have supported its ratification, European lawmakers threw another wrench in the works by referring the accord for a review by the EU’s top court, which could stall its final approval by up to two years.