The failure of many of the UK’s recent prime ministers, who have passed through Downing Street in quick succession, seems easy to explain. Theresa May couldn’t do what she promised and didn’t “get Brexit done”. Boris Johnson broke his own rules, and the law. Liz Truss failed through sheer incompetence.

But Keir Starmer won an election by a landslide and led his party to victory after 14 years out of power. So why is he looking at a probable leadership challenge after less than two years in office?

It is true that Starmer faced deep problems left by the Conservatives, Brexit and COVID. He then had to deal with the war in Gaza, a capricious US president in Donald Trump, and now a war in Iran. But Starmer’s struggles boil down to a failure of leadership.

US political scientist, Ronald Heifetz, has written that political leadership is about disappointing your followers at a “rate they can stand”. His fellow American scholar, Richard Neustadt, argued that leadership (in the case of presidents) was about “the power to persuade”. Keir Starmer has struggled because he disappointed too many, and persuaded too few.

Crucially, Starmer has never won over the public. Labour’s election in 2024 was an anti-Tory vote, not a pro-Labour one, and Starmer rode a wave of unhappiness from a moody and volatile electorate. Even at the height of his popularity in 2024 the public saw him as competent(ish) but – significantly – 49% also thought he might be indecisive.

After just 100 days, Starmer’s poll lead had plummeted and by July 2025 there was a deep sense that Labour had not delivered on its promises.

This failure was in part because the public had very high expectations of what the government would do, and Starmer had repeatedly promised to be all about “delivery”. But the public came to see the government as not delivering much.

Communication failures

The main policies that got attention were the unpopular ones: cuts to the winter fuel allowance, welfare cuts and harsh immigration reforms. But Starmer never used his power to persuade. Popular policies such as standing up to Trump and on climate were buried or went unnoticed.

So why hasn’t he done or said more? Starmer came to be seen as lacking any sort of vision or ideals, and journalists have written of how he seemed only to support “convenientism” and a wrong-headed strategy to take back votes from right-wing challengers Reform UK. His own attempts at communications were poor: in his “most personal interview yet” in 2024 he began by saying he didn’t dream, didn’t have a favourite book and was neither an optimist or pessimist.

It isn’t only the public. Starmer never won over another crucial group: his own MPs. Labour MPs were not loyal to Starmer to begin with, and were quickly upset by some policies purposefully designed to cut across their principles.

On top of this, his determination to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US and the resulting scandal as the closeness of Mandelson’s connections to Jeffrey Epstein emerged, and the growing threat as UK voters fragmented, left Labour increasingly desperate. The local, Welsh and Scottish elections showed the party that the writing was on the wall.

The problems the UK faces will not go away if Starmer exits. His failure then begs the questions about who – if anyone – can succeed. Former health secretary Wes Streeting emerged as the first potential challenger. But does he have anything different to offer?

Much has been said about how Streeting is seen as the best communicator and a leader with a genuine working-class heritage. He has a record of delivering policy, and the NHS has improved under his watch, with public perceptions improving for the first time since before COVID. Interestingly, NHS workers themselves are much less convinced by Streeting’s record, with majority seeing the NHS as doing badly.

There are concerns. Streeting seemed to relish challenging striking doctors. And although he denied that he was close to Mandelson, the ongoing investigations could still show otherwise. And on a practical level, Streeting has little support among his party, much less than Starmer ever had.

Angela Rayner would be a more left-wing alternative. Rayner has a similarly Labour back story as a care worker and a rep with public service union Unison. She has a concrete record of delivery and getting things done, having championed what is arguably the signature achievement of this government in the Employment Rights Act.

But she was forced to resign as deputy prime minister in September 2025 after under-paying stamp duty. Now though, with remarkable timing, she has been cleared of deliberate wrongdoing by HMRC. A glance at Labour polling shows Rayner is also very popular with the party.

And of course Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham now has a seat to contest, which could plot his path back to Westminster and his route to a probable leadership bid. However, beating Reform UK to the Makerfield seat is very far from a given.

Despite Streeting’s resignation, everything remains in flux. Starmer has failed as a leader, but is not yet gone. The possible candidates now circling need to offer a better approach, one that can win over the public and, more immediately, Labour MPs. A general election must be held by August 15, 2029. It remains to be seen if the next Labour prime minister, if there is change at the top, can persuade more and disappoint less in the remaining time.