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Former minister Josh Simons announced on Thursday that he would be giving up his Makerfield constituency – after being elected for the first time just two years ago – to allow the Greater Manchester mayor a shot at re-entering Parliament via a by-election.

The Labour Party is now expected to open up its candidate selection process for Makerfield imminently, at which point Burnham will formally ask for the waiver to stand despite being a mayor.

The core group of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) officers will then meet to discuss the waiver – a meeting sources expect to take place this weekend. It is widely expected that Burnham’s request will be granted, after Downing Street briefed that it would not block Burnham as it did in January.

NEC officers will either make the decision themselves or refer it to a meeting of the full NEC, which next meets on Tuesday.

Views still vary on whether to refer the decision, with concerns that doing so would set a precedent. On the other hand, it is understood that reprieve from the scrutiny the nine officers have received on their decisions around Burnham would be welcomed by some on a personal level.

NEC officers are expected to meet this weekend and, while it is possible that the vote is not unanimous, they are likely to approve Burnham’s waiver.

While Burnham’s bid is highly likely to be approved, senior figures have reservations over the costs incurred his potential return. If successful, it would trigger a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester and potentially a subsequent leadership contest.

One Labour NEC member told PoliticsHome these costs would be “bankruptcy territory” for the party.

It is understood that the by-election will involve sending a number of Labour HQ staff door-knocking in the seat, which will involve acommodation and travel costs.

Makerfield comes after the Gorton and Denton by-election, which a Labour source said was the costliest in the party’s history, as well as the May 7 elections.

If Burnham wins the by-election, the party will also be faced with a mayoral election in Manchester, which is expected to cost the party hundreds of thousands of pounds and the public likely more than £4m.

Others rejected claims of anxiety over party finances, however, in anticipation of a Burnham leadership attracting new party members. One minister said:“We will get a lot of new members with Andy – we will be fine.”

Labour has already put on a large number of canvassing sessions in Makerfield, and on Friday dozens of activists and MPs made the journey to the constituency to join the effort.

Deputy leader Lucy Powell told the FBU conference on Friday morning that she had it on “good authority that absolutely no attempt” to block Burnham would be made. She also revealed she would be the political lead in the by-election. 

“None of the concerns have changed, but the party would explode if he wasn’t allowed to apply,” said one Labour MP.

“He’s got a better chance than anyone else, but Reform will be very strong there – it’s like a 100 per cent Denton seat with no Gorton-type voters.”

PoliticsHome understands that Burnham allies have been eyeing Makerfield as a potential constituency for weeks, as it is next door to where the Manchester mayor lives in Leigh.

The seat will be a tough test for Burnham after Reform UK had success in the wards of the constituency at the recent local elections.

In its eight wards, Reform won 50.4 per cent of the vote while Labour secured just 22.7 per cent. Burnham supporters point out that at the 2024 Manchester mayoral election Burnham won 62 per cent in Makerfield.

The Labour Party has been contacted for comment.