Researchers at Aberystwyth University are leading a new initiative to strengthen space weather forecasting by addressing one of the field’s most persistent gaps: limited understanding of the Sun’s outer atmosphere.
The project, known as “CorMag: A magnetic model of the corona with upper boundary observational constraints,” focuses on improving how scientists model the Sun’s magnetic field, particularly in the corona.
This region plays a critical role in driving solar activity but remains difficult to observe directly. More accurate modelling of this area is expected to enhance predictions of solar events that can interfere with satellites, communications systems and power infrastructure on Earth.
The research is funded by the Science and Technology Facilities Council and reflects a broader effort within the field to close critical knowledge gaps that have long limited predictive accuracy.
What is space weather, and how does it impact us on Earth?
Space weather refers to changing conditions in space driven primarily by the Sun’s activity. This includes phenomena such as solar flares, high-speed streams of charged particles, and coronal mass ejections – large eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun’s atmosphere.
When these events are directed toward Earth, they can interact with the planet’s magnetic field, triggering geomagnetic storms.
The impacts can be significant: satellite operations may be disrupted, GPS accuracy can degrade, and power grids can experience voltage instability or, in extreme cases, outages.
Aviation routes over polar regions are also vulnerable due to increased radiation exposure and communication interference.
As reliance on satellite-based systems and interconnected infrastructure grows, improving space weather forecasting has become a priority for both scientific and operational communities.
Moving beyond surface-based observations
Most existing models of the Sun’s magnetic behaviour rely heavily on measurements taken from its visible surface. While these datasets are well established, they provide only a partial view of the processes that trigger solar eruptions.
The Aberystwyth team is working to integrate data from coronagraphs – instruments designed to block out the Sun’s bright disk and reveal the faint structures of the corona.
By analysing patterns in this data, researchers aim to produce more detailed and reliable representations of the Sun’s magnetic environment.
This approach could enable scientists to better capture how magnetic fields evolve in the corona, offering a more complete picture of the mechanisms behind solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
Implications for solar activity prediction
Improved modelling of the corona has direct implications for forecasting solar activity, particularly in determining when disruptive events may occur.
Timing remains a major challenge in space weather prediction, with current systems often limited in their ability to provide precise warnings.
The enhanced models being developed through the project are expected to reduce uncertainty, enabling forecasters to identify potential impacts on Earth with greater confidence.
This is particularly relevant for organisations responsible for managing critical infrastructure vulnerable to geomagnetic disturbances.
Operational relevance for forecasting agencies
The research is led by Professor Huw Morgan from the university’s Department of Physics and is designed with practical applications in mind.
More accurate representations of the Sun’s magnetic field could feed directly into operational systems used by agencies such as the UK Met Office.
Improved forecasting capability would allow infrastructure operators to take preventative measures, reducing the likelihood of disruption to essential services during periods of heightened solar activity.
As technological dependence increases, advances in space weather forecasting are becoming central not only to scientific research but also to protecting modern infrastructure from the effects of solar variability.