So-called prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket—sites for online gambling, though the companies say they are a form of derivatives trading—have gamified modern life to a previously unforeseen degree. Users can bet not only on events bettors have traditionally gambled on, like sports, but also on bizarrely trivial matters like whether US president Donald Trump will use the expressions “big beautiful bill” or “rigged election” at the annual Thanksgiving turkey pardon. They can take a position on other seemingly comical but potentially hugely consequential outcomes too, like whether the US government will confirm the existence of alien life by the year 2027. On a darker note, some successful bets on life-and-death events such as war in Iran and the abduction of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro have raised questions about whether bettors are trading on insider knowledge. Related Articles Now Kalshi has launched a new category that will let users bet on phenomena like the prices of individual artworks at auction as well as total sales values at particular art auctions. “The markets give …