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Who Will Win at the 2026 Tony Awards? Here Are Our Predictions

Who Will Win at the 2026 Tony Awards? Here Are Our Predictions


Let’s say you don’t live in New York City, or don’t consider yourself to be a theater person. (Frankly, both seem unfathomable if you’re already reading this story—but just go with it.) Why, then, should you care about the Tony Awards?

Because, old chum, the Tonys—which air Sunday, June 7 on CBS and stream live on Paramount+, in a ceremony hosted by Broadway neophyte Pink—happen to be the very best and most entertaining awards show of all. We break down why on a special jazz hands-infused edition of Little Gold Men, featuring VF senior editor Hillary Busis, staff writer Chris Murphy, entertainment director Caitlin Brody, and Little Gold Men senior producer Michele O’Brien.

It’s admittedly a tough moment to be in the Broadway business. Though grosses are at an all-time high, according to the Broadway League, the industry’s margins are, as always, razor-thin, particularly for musicals. A New York Times story from last September opened with the stunning fact that none of the 18 musicals that opened on Broadway in the previous season had, at that point, made a profit—which might have something to do with the fact that only 11 musicals opened on Broadway this season, and of those, only six were new shows. (And only a single one of those, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), wasn’t based on preexisting IP.)

The outlook is rosier for plays, which made more money than musicals this season. Big productions like Giant (starring John Lithgow as Roald Dahl) and a starry revival of Death of a Salesman (produced by controversial comeback kid Scott Rudin) have captured attention and produced big box office receipts. Both seem likely to reap the rewards come Tony night.

The Little Gold Men crew agrees that Salesman is in prime position to win best revival of a play, while Lithgow is likely to overcome Nathan Lane in the very competitive leading actor in a play category—a group that also includes Will Harrison for Punch, Mark Strong for Oedipus, and Daniel Radcliffe for Every Brilliant Thing. But best play may be out of Giant’s reach. That category also cites The Balusters, Little Bear Ridge Road, and the likely winner, Liberation—a timely, twisty meditation on second-wave feminism that won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in May.

Best musical will probably go to either The Lost Boys, a lavish adaptation of Joel Schumacher’s queer-coded cult classic film, or Schmigadoon!, a loving send-up of Broadway’s golden age that originated as a beloved but little-watched Apple TV+ series. (Also nominated are Two Strangers and Titaníque.) The real nail-biter this year is the best revival of a musical category, a contest between three shows: Richard O’Brien’s the Rocky Horror Show (which won’t win), Ragtime, and Cats: The Jellicle Ball. As O’Brien (Michele, not Richard) puts it on Little Gold Men, the decision could come down to nostalgia vs. innovation: “Ragtime is an okay revival of an amazing musical. And Cats: The Jellicle Ball is an amazing revival…of Cats.

For more tea on the Broadway season, Tony predictions, and which Broadway star got the biggest entrance applause we heard all year—spoiler: It was Tony nominee Rachel Dratch, who plays the narrator in Rocky Horror—listen to Little Gold Men below, or wherever you get your podcasts.



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