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Consumer Confidence Rose Slightly in March, But Faith in the Future Falls | National News

Consumer Confidence Rose Slightly in March, But Faith in the Future Falls | National News


Consumer confidence edged up in March, despite the rising cost of gasoline and other goods from the war in Iran, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.

The March reading of the organization’s consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 from 91, with the present situation index that is a measure of consumers’ current assessment of the economy increased 4.6 points to 123.3 (1985=100).

The expectations index, a forward-looking measure, dropped by 1.7 points to 70.9.

“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the business group, wrote in an analysis. “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.”

Consumers under 35 and those 55 and over continued to moderate their optimism, while those 55-plus were the most pessimistic. By income, confidence over the past six months continued to dip in six of eight income groups. Only consumers earning $25,000-$34,999 and $125,000 and over were somewhat more optimistic.

Consumer confidence by political party changed little. Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially lower among independents and the lowest among Democrats.

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson added. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”

Median year-ahead inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025. The percentage of consumers stating that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher rose sharply to 42.4% from 34.9% in February.

In another report, the Labor Department said on Tuesday that the number of open jobs remained little changed in February at 6.9 million.

However, job openings fell by 211,000 in the accommodation and restaurant sectors in February. Hiring in those sectors fell by 178,000, while 88,000 fewer jobs were filled in construction. The pace of hires was the lowest since April 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Companies have been engaged in what analysts call a “low hire, low fire” posture amid uncertainty about the economy, exacerbated by the war in Iran. The conflict, now in its fifth week, has driven the global price of oil to nearly $119 and the national average price of a gallon of gas reaching $4.

The Federal Reserve is on pause with interest rates but has been closely watching the labor market for signs of distress. In February, the economy lost 92,000 jobs, and this Friday the Labor Department will issue the monthly number for March.

Separately, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index posted a 0.9% annual gain in January, down from a 1.1% rise in the prior month.

Continuing a trend, New York posted a 4.9% increase, with Chicago close

behind with a 4.6% gain. Tampa extended its yearly decline to -2.5%.

“Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially,” Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “Splitting the year into two halves sharpens the picture,” Godec continued. “The national index rose 2.2% over the first six months of the period, then fell 1.3% over the most recent six – a swing that explains why annual gains have compressed to under 1% despite prices remaining historically elevated.”

Earlier this year, rates for a 30-year fixed loan dipped below 6%, but they have since risen to around 6.4% with the war in Iran driving up borrowing costs.

“Navy Federal saw especially strong new purchase demand in February when 30-year mortgage rates dipped below 6%,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in an email. “Unfortunately, the war in Iran has halted the momentum. With rates now back to 6.4%, buyers are more hesitant to act unless they have to or truly find their dream home.”

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