The race to lead Toulon carries particular significance given the Mediterranean port city elected a far-right mayor, Jean-Marie Le Chevallier, in the mid-1990s, and remains the most populous city ever to put the party in charge. But Le Chevallier’s tenure was largely seen as a failure and he scored fewer than 8 percent of the vote when he ran for reelection.  

Marc Bayle, a former regional politician and expert in Toulon’s politics, said the Le Chevallier administration still carries “an image of incompetence and disorganization” that impacts how voters there view the far right. 

So despite strong scores in Toulon during national elections, the National Rally’s candidate there — party spokesperson Laure Lavalette — is not using the party’s name while campaigning. Instead she’s promoting herself as a local candidate with cross-partisan support.

“For political commentators and voters with a longer political memory, the National Rally’s past experiences in power are important … But for a new group of National Rally voters, it doesn’t matter as much,” said Chloé Alexandre, a research analyst for French pollster Vérian and the author of a report on the National Rally’s municipal campaign.

Alexandre said polling tends “to show that the National Rally is increasingly seen as a party that could succeed in power.”

The stakes are high.